If the entirety of the Islamic State were to fall by next year, would this influence crude prices?

Asking out of curiosity, as I'm seeing that the size of ISIS is quickly diminishing, and as Mosul's end is nearing; the future of the entire caliphate is at stake. In addition, due to the sheer amount of pipelines that ISIS has controlled, and still controls; it's obvious that they are one part of the reason why crude has crashed (ISIS has created a heap of uncertainty).

My personal opinion: oil prices have remained low for the last year due to a multitude of things, such as: Iran refusing to control its supply, along with Saudi Arabia. Not to mention, when you include the amount of oil being pumped (or previously pumped) within the Islamic State, you can only imagine how much they've oversaturated the market without any control or regulatory power telling them to stop putting so much into the market.

TL;DR: I think it'll have a profound effect on the price of crude, mostly because of speculators though. With ISIS out of the picture, you can bet that there will more than likely be less of a supply of oil, however you also have to realize that many countries that were once dependent on their oil are moving onto bigger and better industries (ex: the US with the Keystone Pipeline built a few years ago, which decreased our dependency on foreign oil enormously).

While I do think prices will rise, it will never return to what it used to be, in part because of America's decreasing dependence on foreign oil, Saudi Arabia+Iran's refusal to stop overpumping, and then you have Russia (which is still one of the largest producers of oil, and as you probably already know, Russia isn't exactly listening to the UN, OPEC, the US, or any foreign authority. They've pretty much reverted back to the Soviet Era in regards to their dealings with foreign affairs and policies.

Oil will rise, I think, but I cant say that it'll ever be over the $100 mark. Also factoring in how much cheaper electric cars are becoming.

Say ISIS completely loses all, or the vast majority of its territory next year, how do you think this would influence crude prices? Positively? Negatively?

Submitted October 11, 2016 at 12:51PM by Little-Jellyfish http://ift.tt/2dYXqqn