So many indicators are at/near record highs.
CAPE is 31, but still somewhat artificially high due to great recession.
S&P Price to Sales is 50% higher than long term mean.
Market Cap to GDP (Buffet's favorite) is 50-100% higher than mean depending on whether you detrend it.
But here's the thing...the original and most commonly considered indicator, good old 1 year forward S&P PE, is quite reasonable at 17.3
One other hugely important note is that profit margin ratios are double long term mean....which is jaw dropping to me. But before I just consider that a for-sure indicator of a big drop, I also consider what some big name pointed out (Gundlach?) that high margins may be a thing of future due to tech stocks often having giant margins, and their growing cap influencing margin of overall market.
The point is- I don't even know what the point is.
Yeah, I didn't mention interest rates- they will go up and hurt stocks since stocks returns must compete which will shrink multiples, and interest costs to corporations.
Just venting...no opinion on where things going. I'm at 30% stock now and obviously annoyed I wasn't higher for last year.
Submitted September 09, 2018 at 09:54AM by thinkofanamefast https://ift.tt/2MaaRna
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