Everyone is talking about the partial yield curve inversion and the coming stock market crash. But what does history say and still a couple things need to happen.
First of all, people are referring to only partial yield curve inversion which is between the 5s and 2s treasury yields. Historically, it seems that this part of yield curve inverts the earliest. https://www.grufity.com/grufity/INV.YLD.CRV1/Inverted-Yield-Curve-An-Early-Signal
It's a very early signal for a market crash. Sometimes, it proves to be false alarm too like in 2006 or 1998.
On the other hand, if you look at the complete long end and short end inversion, which is between the 10-year and 3-month yields, then it has proven to be more timely indicator of market crash.
https://www.grufity.com/grufity/INV.YLD.CRV2/Inverted-Yield-Curve-Wait-for-it
But there's a long gap yet between the two rates and inversion seems months away.
Do you think it's time to short now or just be cautious and wait on the sidelines?
Submitted December 11, 2018 at 02:21PM by JohnInvest https://ift.tt/2RXbZOQ
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