Hi all!
Today was an interesting day. I actually started off with a big ass mistake so it took some serious emotional capital and skill to fix it...basically I severely misjudged how high CORT could go. So I started short at $5.36 per my plan ($5.30-5.50) but it kinda got away from me. I planned like I said to give it to $6 since I had no idea what it could do but even that wasn't enough! By the time it got over $6 it was skipping up 7-10c at a time so it was getting very scary! HOWEVER this is why I always start small...even though this was a big loss, it was still MANAGEABLE because I started into the trade with a size that allowed me to prepare for disaster. When trading front side parabolics this is absolutely critical. Because of the size, I was actually able to comfortably add more after it peaked in the $6.30s, with a stop over the high of day if it continued against me, and through some creative scalping I was able to bring my average up to $5.77 and actually cut the loss down to only $100! This is a huge thing for me because it proves that I was in complete control emotionally and was able to manage what could have been a huge loss down into a manageable loss. Even more compelling for this argument is that I was also still in my XOMA swing, my RGDO swing, and also had started a CLF long at $4.50 so I technically had four positions open (though only two were day trades per my rules to not have too many positions in the morning) and still was able to manage this loss effectively. CLF ended up being a small loss (long at $4.50 and cut it off at $4.37 under the low of day per my plan). Then I shorted NPTN at $6.24 and that was a killer, covering at $6.09 and $5.96 for a big gain and that was enough to bring me back to green for the day. So through solid emotional management, sticking to my plans and my rules I was able to finish nicely green today despite being completely wrong on CORT ... this kind of management and control is critical if you want to be a profitable trader and it takes a long ass time to develop it so today was kind of a milestone day for me since it proved that I have made a lot of progress in this area. In the past before I went full time and started teaching and really working on my planning/strategy, I would have crapped my pants and taken a $500-600 loss on CORT and probably went into tilt mode the rest of the day and been down $2000 by noon so this is huge! So anyway, really awesome day for me even though it was only a normal sized gain. BTW I also sold my XOMA swing today at $4.14 from $3.98 and $3.82 adds the last two days...if you remember I had $3.98 average and was able to snag a nice profit from $3.82 and bring my average to $3.90 and then bring shares down to the same size for the swing up to $4.14 today) ... anyway today there were a lot of awesome lessons. Here is my plan for tomorrow:
CORT - Cmon you guys didn't think I was giving up that easily did you? HA! I'll be watching for a morning push toward today's high in the $6.30s to start a short. HOWEVER I will not be starting on the front side this time. I want to see this push a bit and show some weakness even if it means I have to short it lower. It is clearly very extended so it needs to rest but it did give back quite a lot today so I think it will have a small rebound in the morning to squeeze out the early shorts (aka me, lol) and then should roll over. So I'll watch $6.30-6.50 for a topping pattern and go from there. For obvious reasons, I'll be very cautious on this one :)
GERN - Beautiful flag developing on the daily chart. I like it for a long in the $4.06 area with a stop under $4.00. The $4.20 level is probably the key followed by $4.25 ... after that should be a quick trip to $4.50. I will plan to take partial profits near $4.50 since it's a big level on the weekly and I'm not sure how much juice this will have left there after coming all the way from 4 bucks. If it does break $4.50 it could be nice but I think taking most profit there is probably a good idea. Just a quick note ... this can also be a short under $4.00 if it starts flattening out there during the day and I'm not opposed to playing the short if it sets up cleanly.
DENN - Awesome daily pattern on this and intraday it was setting up nicely right under the $12.07 daily high. I'm gonna prepare for two things: First, if it opens where it closed or nearby and immediately gets a volume push through $12 I will take it but with relatively small size because I'm not fully convinced this will hold since it's so extended on the 15 min chart. The other plan would be if it flops out of the gate (this actually would be better IMO) I will look to get long around $11.80-85 with a stop under today's low. In the second scenario it might need to be a swing to break that daily level. In the first I am ok with adding more once it proves that it will hold above $12 and develops an uptrend.
RGDO - She's back! I added for a swing in my bigger account today at $1.53 and plan to add more tomorrow if it pushes. Today was the first day it actually pushed over $1.50 and held there vs being sold off so it is breaking out of the 60 minute trend and holding. Also, last time it ran on a Friday so who knows ... maybe it's a Friday thing! Anyway I still have that small chunk in my Robinhood account and now I also have a bigger swing on top of that from $1.53 and my stop on that is under $1.37.
These are the only four I REALLY like...and even CORT is not that great anymore. For others I have some nice patterns isolated but they all still seem like they need more time or just will have to be played dynamically.
- OREX watching over $7.65 for long
- NPTN another short trap today...watching for push to $6.50-7 now for reshort
- CHGG awesome daily...stalking it over $8.50 for a break to $8.80 -> $9.20 -> $9.80
- CRIS watching for short near $2.90 for $2.75 breakdown
- JRJC back on the radar for that $6.40 break soon
- LXRX will probably buy this in Robinhood tomorrow if it stays in the area it closed in. Awesome daily and seems like easy money (as if there is such a thing, lol)
- CAPN watching for short near $6.00 for $5.70 breakdown to sub-$5
- PRAN nice push today ... could flag for a couple days and then break $1.31 for push toward $1.60
- NDRM one of the few bios that hasn't gone yet...this is an extremely wild stock when it gets moving (note the 300% gain in a day on 12/30/14) so it has a lot of potential. Please be careful on this...I would stay away if you don't have at least a few yrs of experience trading. Picture what happened to me on CORT but 3x faster and 3x more volatile, lol
- CALA looks awesome over $14 if it can set up intraday
- HLF still watching over $38.20 for push through that big $39.30 resistance. $37.50 support held up today from my plan last night so still same idea there
Happy Friday!
Chris
Submitted March 19, 2015 at 09:39PM by greenbartrading http://ift.tt/1xDA0t0
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