here are just a couple of things that i will be watching that imho might pose a threat to the bull market as we head into this 2016 presidential election year ...
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if we end negative for the full year here it would be the first time the markets end down in a pre-election year since 1939 (which was the 7th year of fdr's presidency and second pre-election according to stock trader's almanac) ... the markets were down double digits the following two years
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2016 will officially be the 7th year of the bull market (look up "7-year bull cycle" for more.....................)
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this current month of december (which is historically one of the market's best months of the entire year) is down -3.60% thus far (if we're using cash spx to gauge the overall markets) as of the 12/18/15 close ... albeit we still have 2 more weeks in this trading year left to make back much of those losses, but thus far its not looking too hot
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as of the 12/18/15 close the market (spx) is down -2.59% for the full year ... excluding that flat/down (-$0.04) year in 2011, we haven't registered a solid "down" year in the spx since 2008
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the $djta (dow transportation index) is already in bear market territory -20%+ from its highs last made in nov. 2014
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we had a failed scr (santa claus rally) in 2014 ... the first since 2008 ... last year's santa claus rally ended down -2.96% in those 7 trading days (last 5 trading days in 2014 and first 2 trading days in 2015) which is actually not too terribly surprising that we're having this down year in 2015 (so far) ...
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commodities like crude oil has fallen nearly -70% since last summer ... and is hitting fresh cycle lows this month ... even brent crude is hitting lows not seen since the early 2000's ...
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there is also this to consider (courtesy of stock trader's almanac)-
Why 2016 could be a lousy year for the market:
Prior to President Obama, there have been six previous presidents that served an eighth year in office since 1901; Presidents Wilson (1920), Roosevelt (1940), Eisenhower (1960), Reagan (1988), Clinton (2000) and G.W. Bush (2008). President McKinley was elected to a second term, but was assassinated in his fifth year in office. Eighth years are also presidential election years. In the following chart the one-year seasonal pattern for eighth years is compared to all presidential election years.
Eighth years of presidential terms represent the worst of election years since 1920. In eighth years DJIA has suffered an average decline of –13.9%. Out of these six full years, only 1988 was positive. As a result, eighth years have vastly differed from the typical election-year pattern.
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we will have to wait and see just how this year's "scr" (santa claus rally) will do, again its the final 5 trading days of this year followed by the first 2 trading days of the new year ...
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there is also something called "ffd" (first five days) where we gauge the first 5 trading days of the new year
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and there is the "january barometer" where we gauge the full month of jan.
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although not nearly as important as those others i posted in the above -- but its also of noteworthy to see how the final trading day of 2015 (dec. 31st) and the first trading day of the new year (jan. 4th) do as well
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if all of these somehow go on to end negative (bearish), that could be a very troubling imho for things to come in the market in 2016 and beyond ... we will just have to wait and see ... in other words santa better as heck show up and soon or else ............
hold onto your seats i guess eh ...
if there is anything else out there please do share it in here ... but this is just some things i will be monitoring as we close out the books in 2015 and open a new one in 2016 ... glta and very merry x-mas and a happy new year 2016 to y'alls on this sub
Submitted December 21, 2015 at 04:35PM by bigbear0083 http://ift.tt/1MsocQ3
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