Hello friends. So first and foremost I wanted to share with you guys my new and improved name. It's Matt. It's always been Matt. And I'm still doing the same thing I've been doing just under the name you guys know me from in the chatroom.
Public Service Announcement
What happened to the old account? Well in case you remember our very strange "friend" who likes to occasionally harass our posts? He's going on crusade to try to harm this sub. and our community as a whole (for whatever reason motivates him) He doesn't like our sub, he doesn't like you, he doesn't like our chat, and he doesn't like me apparently.
Can't win them all. You do something for free... and people who try to make money off of doing the same hate you for it. I know some of you have messaged /u/stockjock-e and the chat mods wondering where our daily posts are. Well they are here but this guy just downvotes them to zero with dozens of fake accounts so you don't actually get to see them. As in, he's attacking your own content. So your support of discussion and every upvote unfortunately counts until he gets bored trolling us... we post here and on /r/investing. Also don't engage him directly and he'll hopefully run out of steam. We're growing like wildfire, and it's only going to get better from here, so I wanted to thank you all for the support you've given our community so far and what we're all going to accomplish from here on out as a community!
Alright enough with the group hugs and shit... on with the news.
Video Recaps
These are the bi-weekly quick and dirty way to get the updates. Wednesdays at 7:00 EST and Sundays at 6:00 EST. So firstly if you haven't already done so please watch this video where we set up all you need to know about this market. Each resistance, and each support, and each price target. It's showing what a previous bull market looks like and examines the psychology behind the buying and selling. Then it compares it to the setup today to show the psychological case for it not being a bull market in my opinion.
[Afterward, watch this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEcGe3uXPgo we put together yesterday showing the aftermath of the call. We hit that B-Resistance nail right on the head to the penny. That's how sharp all of you guys are--it's the constant collaboration that lets us make these precises targets that we all are not asleep at the wheel when they happen. I just summarize them in a video for you guys, but it's the results of the community that is in the video. There is no Adsense, no ads, and no profit made whatsoever off of any of this--free free free for you guys!
So after seeing both videos please really absorb this SPX projection chart and the resistance lines presented. This is your trading blueprint for everything out there (as most equities charts have a similar look) Also take note the little white square. That is decision day 2016 (and I'm not talking the new president here). Somewhere mid-late April. That will be when you can fully say "this is a bull/bear market," because we either plummet sub 1800 from there, or we rocket past 2134 from there. That white square is the 50% retrace of the bull move from 1805 and will be about 1925-1930, give or take. That is the real battleground for this market--mark my words. So until then we are going to trade the chop as the algos and banks pass risk around for a bit...and this is how you do it.
How to trade this
First take a look at this SPX chart Two things will happen. We will touch that "B" resistance again, 2050. And secondly is that we will brush past the two targets in that chart I posted. 2010 and 1975. BOTH of these things will happen before the end of April, it's just a debate as to which happens first. We go up first then retrace, or we retrace first then go up. It's the million dollar debate on the street. Personally I am taking the bet we retrace first. Either case, the market does not look good to me and I feel it's destined to fall hard at some point before September.
I was shorting into today's close because I think on the dailies the SPX today looks exactly like 11/5-11/11 of last year--almost exactly. Failed to fill the gap on the close, starting Monday I believe we're destined to bounce off the LMA 100 on the dailies (that 1975 target) as the first move.
Current Fundamentals Summary
Bull case: QE and banks with cash can pump into equities despite terrible fundamentals and FOMO can lift a market many times above it's value. See: bubble.
Bear case: each dip of the market we've found lower and lower lows since 2014. Debt is bad and credit needs to cycle, and the oil glut is not going to go anywhere until production cuts happen. Low oil prices, drilling companies can't grow, and highly leveraged banks are stuck bagholding sinking shale ships (Re: housing crisis). The corporate junk bonds were heavily sold all year and are looking to take another round of selling (see; HYG). So things just feel unstable to me.
Well anyways, hope you guys enjoyed the posts and yes they will keep coming! Your support and discussion is appreciated, and as always, thanks for being a constant reader and member of our community.
Submitted March 24, 2016 at 08:20PM by trader_matt http://ift.tt/1RoPM4q
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