Hey friends,
So it's come down to fulfill the things we've been preaching about the last few months. SPX took out the resistances one at a time on the way up (like in the videos we post) but at our "The Top is In" video we reiterated that the 2134 top was going to be the top for a while and today's post-BOJ, post-Fed clearly shows how quickly the market can deflate.
So now I'm plotting out an approximate move for both bull and bear case Here/ I'm labelling clearly the highest probability case for the decision point of bull or bear market with estimated timing.
We've been mentioning that bumping against a resistance that is from an ATH, and then just blasting through an ATH without a pull back first was such a low probability trade. Every hopeful bull in the world based a bull market on a 5 point a day trickle up to Fed day... for reasons I never understood. They believed we'd just walk right through a year long resistance and a $Trillion dollar wall with ease. But actually what it was, was shorts getting impatient and call buying to protect their stubborn positions. A little re-positioning to gamble on a rate hike (which we never got). So "massive bull market going to ATH and beyond this month!" Not at all. You can't decide bull market from the highs. That's not how trading works.
The decision point is actually made at the first major dip, like the Anatomy of a Bull Market video I made a few months back. You have a bump against some resistance (c,b, or a from the videos) then a pull back first, and it's then where the pivot forms. At that dip (which is likely coming now over the next week or two) you will see the real volume of the bulls and bears fighting it out at which the market either flies to new ATH and beyond, or bounces down like a basketball falling down the stairs ending in an August/September crash to 1600.
Either way you subscribe, as we said for months both the bull and bear case have shared trading paths, and this is it. The market isn't decided yet, and everything said now is just opinions, and nobody knows what the money will do at the pivot. The key points are highlighted in the chart with the most likely candidate being the 38.2% fib retrace, patterning after other dips in the last two years, which is a 2040 (assumed that 2070 is lost in the next few days).
So for those of you with money out there in the market, invest wisely and understand that there is a lot of science and math behind the scenes of what most perceive as random. It's not. If it was, nobody would make consistent money ;)
Be safe out there, bulls and bears alike, because the REAL chop will come at 2040. Except it will be +/- 40-100 point moves, not +/- 10.
DTP_Matt
Submitted April 28, 2016 at 07:21PM by DTPMatt http://ift.tt/1WVRLmy
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