Thursday, May 5, 2016

Are Prediction Markets like betting on Politics better than investing in the Stock Market?

I won $300 gambling on Predictit.org and could barely pass high school level math. The trick is to bet only on sure things like an election after a significant percent of votes come in. Once about half the votes are in, the margins rarely move more than 1-2 points for either candidate. You could could get 1-5% return on every market thats guaranteed and it keeps adding up rather than 5% for a whole year on the stock market. You could buy hundreds of shares of Hillary winning the nomination for 90 cents and get back $1 for each share. Then buy hundreds of shares for Bernie losing the nomination. Trump shares for the nomination are still available at a similar price. With the stock market, your competing with insider traders and high speed computer who know all the important news before you could ever find out. Predictit's $850 limit on an event significantly reduces the chances of one person controlling any market. I never seen a better casino that I could win in.



Submitted May 05, 2016 at 03:25PM by burrobonton2 http://ift.tt/24AlROP

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