Interest Rates Still Falling

Today I want to take a look at interest rate related items and make the case that rates are still in a downward trend, staying low and there is no reason, at least on the charts, that they are going to move higher anytime soon.

Let’s start with the TLT long-bond ETF and you can see the trend without even drawing lines on the chart. The trend is still to the upside. If we add some short-term moving averages, the 10, 20 and a 30-day average - the 20 and 30 are exponential - you can see you can see that price is above these averages, no downside crossovers, no flat averages and still a rising trend in TLT.

Now I'm going to switch to utilities and it's an interest rate sensitive item. Same story. You got a rising trend, it's unbroken with no real breaks of any kind. RSI on the bottom since this is a stock instrument, strong but not overbought.

Let's keep going. Here we have IYR, a real estate ETF. A Real Estate Investment Trust with the same story. Still hovering near new highs, well above the short-term averages, RSI is strong but not overbought.

Let’s change the chart type. This is just a few stock index items on the bottom. On balance volume powering to new highs. And price relative - price versus the S&P 500 - that still rising. So you got the real estate ETF above its major averages. You got the XLU utilities above the average and running higher. You got the bond ETF above its averages and trending higher so nothing on the charts from basic chart reading that suggests anything but a falling in interest rates and a rising market in interest rates sensitive instruments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH2MrcRijE4&feature=youtu.be

Submitted July 19, 2016 at 04:04PM by TechnicianApp http://ift.tt/29MJhJJ