Eurozone vs US in an event of a recession. Possible plays?

Hello! This is more of a macroeconomic question but It seems very strange.

For Background I'm by no means a Professional Trader I'm a Finance Student in Zurich. And I've worked in UBS. I'm trading as an individual Investor for 2 years with around $15k in capital currently.

Before the last recession in 2007 the US Interest rates were around 5% and Eurozone at 3.25% (very high levels for our times).

Now approaching 10 years since the last recession the US interest rates are climbing and it looks like recession is on the way (with the flattening yield curve).

However Eurozone interest rates are at historic lows at -0.40% with no hike in sight.

With that in mind, It looks like US is due for a recession with high interest rates and 105% Debt to GDP. While the Eurozone seems nowhere near it with Dept to GDP at 85% and interest rates at historic lows.

Question is how to play off the situation? Equities seem dangerous everywhere. EU bonds are hardly worth it.

To me it seems like the only possible plays are Short ETF's or Long Term US Bond ETF's (Sadly I can't invest in them because of the EU regulation...)

That leaves the only possibility to make some profits from FOREX. Im currently holding a 10k Euro short position (because the difference in central bank policy). But I think that in an event of a Recession the dollar will fall and I should be Long EUR/USD or CHF/USD.

Those are my thoughts. Please leave out yours so I could see someone else's point of view. Any advice would be much appreciated.

Submitted July 25, 2018 at 03:55AM by Br00dlord https://ift.tt/2mIngVe