The Goldman Sachs bull bear indicator is the highest since 1969. The yield curve model signals a 1 in 7 chance of a recession in 12 months. The activity augmented yield curve model signals a 25% chance of a recession in the next 6 months.

Inflation usually catalyzes the end of the business cycle. Ever since the August BLS report showed average hourly earnings growth of 2.9% and average weekly earnings growth of 3.2%, the breakeven inflation rate and treasury yields have been increasing.

The Next Recession Could Be In 2019

Submitted September 12, 2018 at 11:51PM by AlexPitti https://ift.tt/2CRCFgD