$AAPL & $BZUN; what would you do?

$AAPL - I own 1000 shares at an average cost of $90.52. $BZUN - I own 1950 shares at an average cost of $35.50.

What would you do? Buy, sell, or hold?

As far as Apple is concerned, I could see this turning around by January. Current movement reminds me of the downturn in August of 2015. That same year, the stuck recovered in October. A potential US-China trade agreement next month and/or the Fed putting a pause on interest rate hikes could bode well for the stock (as well as the rest of the market). From what I can see, the recent market downturn is based on sentiment; not company fundamentals. Apple is solid and is becoming more than just an iPhone company. Is it a bad thing that iPhone growth has slowed because consumers are holding on to their current devices for 2-4 years? If a product is good and doesn't need replacing in the short term, then why is that a bad thing? Investors/Analysts have complained for years that Apple is just an iPhone company. That is no longer the case. The services business continues to grow. Apple basically owns the majority of the smartwatch market share. And new products like the iPad Pro have the potential to make up for Apple's decrease in iPhone sales.

Best case scenario: Positive news with regards to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and overall holiday sales. Fed puts a pause on interest rate hikes and announce the intention for only two hikes in 2019. US-China strikes a trade deal and ends trade war. Stock price recovers to 200+ by mid-January. Banks issue upgrades. Next ER is well-received by analysts. And this is back on track for $300 in 2019.

Worst case scenario: Stock continues to dip. Fed continues interest rate hikes with no slowdown in sight. No trade war agreement is made by end of year. Negative sentiment towards holiday sales news. Stock starts 2019 in the $150s. ER and lack of detailed sales numbers isn't well received by analysts which pushes this south of $140.

As far as Baozun is concerned, the earnings call is at 7AM EST. The trade war has certainly effected the performance of Chinese stocks. I'm sure most would agree that buying any Chinese stock at this time is not a good idea. Along with $BZUN, $BABA, $JD, $MOMO, $TCEHY, etc. have taken a beating with regards to their share price. There is potential for a turnaround with a US-China trade agreement. That being said, the company is fundamentally sound. The numbers aren't bad, though they aren't as good as the period of 2016-17. Will today's earnings result in a boost to the stock price, like it did for Pinduoduo? Or will it dip to the mid to low 20s? If it dips but a trade agreement is made next month, this stock could nearly double what it is now in January.

Best case scenario: They beat on earnings. US-China trade agreement made in December. Holiday sales news is positive. Stock starts 2019 off at $45+. They beat on the next ER in February and heads towards $60+.

Worst case scenario: I don't even want to think about it.

Submitted November 21, 2018 at 12:19AM by 954courier https://ift.tt/2TvOi0Y