Hey what's happening r/StockMarket! Happy Saturday to all of you. I hope everyone on this sub made out okay last week amid all of the insane market volatility of late, and are ready for the new trading week, albeit a holiday-shortened trading week ahead! :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning December 24th, 2018.
Stocks enter final full week of the year on the brink of a bear market - (Source)
Stocks head into the final full trading week of the year on the brink of a bear market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted in the past week in its worst performance since before the bull market began, in the very thick of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008.
While the market is seemingly oversold, strategists see little chance for any bounce in the week ahead, and the focus will remain on Washington's fight over a government shutdown. Strategists say it may be too soon for investors to look for bargains among the rubble in what has traditionally been one of the quietest weeks of the year.
The Nasdaq Composite Index, dragged down by tech and biotech, was the first index to close in bear market territory, and is now 22 percent from its high. The Nasdaq lost 8.4 percent to 6,332 in the past week.
The Dow fell 6.9 percent in the past week, to 22,445, and is now just 3 percentage points away from bear market territory, or a 20 percent decline. The S&P 500 was down 7 percent for the week and is just 16 points away from a key support level of 2,400. It is also just about 2 percentage points from a bear market.
"Even if we do [get a Santa rally], it's not going to be meaningful. It's going to be super light volume, with a half trading day," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. "Normally, this has been one of the strongest months of the year, but so far things in 2018 that normally have happened haven't been happening."
In a bad sign on Friday, volume was really heavy. More than 12 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges on Friday, the biggest volume in at least two years.
The stock market closes after a half day on Monday, Christmas Eve, and is closed Tuesday.
Dismal December
December's performance is nearly the worst on record for the month, with the Dow's decline of 12 percent the worst since 1931. December is typically a good time of year for stocks, and this December is on track to be the worst month of the year for the first time ever.
"I would imagine trading activity is going to slow down quite a bit," said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Overall, I think the focus is going to be on getting things tied up ahead of year's end. It's possible there could be some outsized moves given reduced liquidity. I think there's going to be a lot of focus on getting a fresh start next year."
Technical analysts say the market continues to look weak, with many stocks in bear market territory already and trading well below their 200-day moving averages.
The S&P 500 had been in a range from 2,600 to 2,800 for four months, but quickly fell out of it all the way to 2,400.
"The measured move was reached faster and more furious than most people thought," said Scott Redler of T3Live.com. "It doesn't seem like anyone wants to step in the way of the headlines that are piling up. And why would they? The next level traders would like to see tested is 2,250 to 2,300."
A negative chart formation that emerged last week, known as a head-and-shoulders formation, points to a level of 2,300 in the S&P 500.
"Buyers are just sitting back and instead of playing an oversold bounce, they're just waiting," he said. "Anybody's that tried to position for a Santa rally has been absolutely run over. The calendar issues have been all off."
Government shutdown
Hanging over the market in the week ahead are the government shutdown fight, which pits the president against Democrats in Congress, over his plan for a border wall. There was a glimmer of hope late on Friday that a deal could be hatched, with Sen. Bob Corker saying a path forward was being discussed.
While traders said there was not much concern about the partial shutdown, a bigger worry was the fighting that could become the norm once Democrats have control of the House in January.
"It does seem like it's weighing on sentiment. It's more a signal about just how difficult things will ultimately be. It enhances expectations for gridlock in the future," said Cabana.
The Fed this past week was viewed as a major catalyst for the sell-off, after it released a forecast for more rate hikes at the same time it sees a slower growing economy.
That sparked concerns that the Fed was heading for a policy mistake, and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed's balance sheet rolldown was on "autopilot" really spooked traders.
But on Friday, New York Fed President John Williams kicked off a brief stock market rally when he told CNBC the Fed is willing to reconsider its policy depending on the economy and conditions. His comment was not unlike Powell's, but traders said he sounded more flexible and sensitive to market conditions.
Strategists point to a few big concerns for the markets heading into next year — the most worrisome being trade and the Fed.
Wilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley said his base case is there will be a trade agreement with China that avoids the next round of tariffs.
"The tariffs so far don't have much impact on the economy," he said. "If we moved into 2019 and all tariffs were implemented, that would very quickly outweigh all stimulus we have coming into 2019. That would be a weight on GDP growth and bring our numbers down for next year."
Cabana said growth for the beginning of the year looks good, and if sentiment could stabilize that might help markets. Treasury yields fell in the past week, with the 10-year yield at 2.78 percent Friday.
"We think rates could be higher. We think 3 percent is reasonable ... but quite honestly risks appear quite heavily to the downside," he said. "The bigger ones are international and geopolitical in nature — what happens to trade, China's economy, Brexit, European populism and gridlock in the U.S."
Cabana said the low end of the range for the 10-year yield could be 2.5 percent.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P HEAT MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for next month:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
([CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!]())
NONE.
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART!)
Average S&P 500 Stock Decline Exceeds 25%
The S&P 500 may not have reached bear market territory as an index yet, but of the 500 individual stocks in the index, more than 60% are down at least 20% from their 52-week highs. Overall, the average decline from a 52-week high is a staggering 25.7%! The chart below shows the distance each of the individual components is trading from their 52-week highs grouped by 10 percentage point ranges. As of Thursday afternoon, just 72 stocks in the S&P 500 are even trading within 10% of their 52-week highs. Meanwhile, 82 stocks in the index are down 40% or more with 24 of those 82 stocks down by more than half! Have their been uglier periods for the stock market? You bet. But not in a long time.
So which stocks are down the most? There are actually a number of well-known names with stocks like General Electric (GE), Western Digital (WDC), Nvidia (NVDA), Halliburton (HAL), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Micron (MU), and Applied Materials (AMAT) all having been more than cut in half.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Is It Time For Santa?
So far it’s been rough for stocks in December, a month that has historically been bullish. How bad has it been? After 10 trading days, we’re off to the worst start to December since 1980! In fact, the S&P 500 Index is flirting with “worst month of 2018” status, currently held by October (-6.9%). Since 1957, when the S&P 500 started in its current form of roughly 500 stocks, December has never been the worst month of the year.
Is there still time for a Santa Claus rally? “December has been a month to forget for equities so far, but there is a silver lining. Turns out, the majority of December’s gains tend to happen the second half of the month—so we still have time to believe in Santa,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, December is historically a strong month that has tended to see the majority of its gains late in the month.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Day Before Christmas: Tech and Small-Caps Best
For decades we have been tracking the market’s performance around holidays in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac. In the 52nd edition for 2019, data for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 can be found on page 88. Of the eight holidays tracked, Christmas has been one of the most consistently bullish with respectable average gains occurring on the day before. Small-caps, measured by the Russell 2000 have been up 74.2% of the time on the day before Christmas with an average gain of 0.37% since 1987. NASDAQ is second best, up 67.7% of the time with an average gain of 0.42%. DJIA and S&P 500 have been softer with gains 61.3% and 58.1% of the time respectively. Volatility also tends to be subdued ahead of Christmas as well as the worst decline recorded by any of the four indexes was 0.69% by NASDAQ in 1997. NASDAQ also had the best day before performance, up a staggering 7.56% in 2000. The market did not get exactly what it was looking for from the Fed, but perhaps a pause in trading, to celebrate Christmas, will have some positive impact.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for December 21st, 2018
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 12.23.18
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NET YET UP!)
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading month ahead-
- $NFLX
- $BAC
- $BA
- $BBBY
- $KBH
- $SGH
- $STZ
- $MA
- $JPM
- $C
- $GS
- $JNJ
- $UNH
- $WFC
- $AA
- $LRCX
- $CJPRY
- $SLB
- $ABT
- $LEN
- $UNF
- $AKS
- $BMY
- $LW
- $VLO
- RPM
- $AXP
- $SMPL
- $SNX
- $MSM
- $WYI
- $CMC
- $HELE
- $FAST
- $PHM
- $CSX
- $INFO
- $CALM
- $LNN
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT MONTH'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Amazon.com, Inc. -
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is expected to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, January 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.48 per share on revenue of $73.87 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 153.70% with revenue increasing by 22.19%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.8% below its 200 day moving average of $1,695.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Apple, Inc. $150.73
Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is expected to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, January 31, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.66 per share on revenue of $91.94 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $4.40 to $4.77 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 19.79% with revenue increasing by 4.13%. Short interest has increased by 11.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 28.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.2% below its 200 day moving average of $193.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Facebook Inc. $124.95
Facebook Inc. (FB) is expected to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, January 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.17 per share on revenue of $16.42 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.36% with revenue increasing by 26.58%. Short interest has increased by 7.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 19.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.2% below its 200 day moving average of $169.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Netflix, Inc. $246.39
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, January 17, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $4.21 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.23 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 39.02% with revenue increasing by 28.13%. Short interest has increased by 4.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 26.1% below its 200 day moving average of $333.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $16.93
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is expected to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, January 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.08 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue decreasing by 2.03%. Short interest has decreased by 2.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.1% below its 200 day moving average of $18.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Tesla, Inc. $319.77
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is expected to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Wednesday, January 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.12 per share on revenue of $6.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.41 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of at least $0.01 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 166.46% with revenue increasing by 93.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.7% above its 200 day moving average of $311.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Microsoft Corp. $98.23
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is expected to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, January 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.09 per share on revenue of $32.21 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.54% with revenue increasing by 11.38%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.7% below its 200 day moving average of $103.08. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 2.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $7.68
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) is expected to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, January 18, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $781.53 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 91% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 130.77% with revenue increasing by 30.06%. Short interest has increased by 14.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.8% below its 200 day moving average of $9.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
General Electric Co. $7.15
General Electric Co. (GE) is expected to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 29, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $32.02 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 33.33% with revenue increasing by 1.97%. Short interest has increased by 8.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 32.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 42.4% below its 200 day moving average of $12.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Bank of America Corp. $23.37
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Wednesday, January 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.64 per share on revenue of $22.43 billion. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.17% with revenue decreasing by 6.70%. Short interest has increased by 9.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.7% below its 200 day moving average of $29.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 1.5% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week ahead?
Have a fantastic weekend and trading week ahead r/StockMarket! :)
Submitted December 22, 2018 at 12:57PM by bigbear0083 http://bit.ly/2T0B9vK
No comments:
Post a Comment