Hi! I bought a large amount of shares of BBLU for $0.23 a share on the Robinhood app. Now, I want to cut my losses and get rid of it for the $0.02 it's worth, but it no longer appears in the app?
Mainly looking for a website that allows me to search for something like this, or known stocks that were ~50 a share in 2007.
Any stock will do
AMD expects $1.5B in future revenue for three new gaming processors...
I'm a relative noob when it comes to stock trading. I know more than the average person, but relative to this community, I'm undoubtedly a beginner. As a result of this, I don't know what news/analysis sources are regarded with respect. The only institution I'm aware of is The Wall Street Journal or the NY Times Business section.
For example, after Googling a bit, The Street kept popping up with articles. However, I got the sense that The Street may be a little sketchy. Their article titles are at least Buzz Feed-level click bait, or at worst sound like the infamous, "You won't believe this one weird trick that will double your passive income in 30 days" type ads.
The decision by the BOJ members to keep the stimulus package unchanged led to global repercussions while the Dollar Index broke out of its monthly level of 93.62 and is currently trading at 93.42. The next major monthly level is 92.6 This has led to a breakout in commodities and a sell off in equity markets. A surprise sell off was triggered in NSE Nifty on the last day of the April clearing. The index surprised traders my making a high of 7992 and then spurring a sell off . SGX Nifty is trading 25 points gap down today. Nifty should take support of 7820 which is a short term trend change level. Small cap index will see a trend change below 5089.
I'm a new investor and have been looking around and saw that Nintendo's stock price for the past 3 months has been fluctuating up and down and right now is at a low.
Would this be a good time to buy low and sell in a few months? Nintendo seems to be on thin ice right now, so do you think it'll just keep dipping?
So I'm practicing with paper money atm and trading options. When I trade options, the indicated maximum loss puzzles me. For example, I might buy a put option on SPY but it is saying the maximum loss is $204,000. So do I owe the writer $204,000 if I don't fulfill the contract, or if it expires? Or is it only for people exercising the contract? This may seem like a dumb question but I'm fairly new to trading. Any response is appreciated. EDIT: Sorry i should have added that these contracts ask price is 1.44. So its saying if I bought 100 the total cost is $1440 and the maximum loss is $204,000, this is what confuses me.
Tittle
DHT gonna announce their Q1 results on May 2nd but their price trading at pretty low now. Is it a good idea to buy now or wait till 2nd?
I would have told myself I had just moved all our web services to AWS and looks like a really great investment. :-(
Josh Brown just posted some interesting and persuasive facts comparing FB to religion. Mainly:
Everyone knows it's a great company but my question is whether you'd buy it? Fundamentals looks stretched: support. I'm thinking there's a bunch more opportunities out their with bigger upside. But always interested in hearing everyone's thoughts.
Hi,
I am a somewhat beginner stock market trader/investor. I do read about the basics, including Fundamental and Technical analysis but I am at a wall. I still don't know how to pick my first stocks or how to spot winning stocks from like dozens of stocks out there. Any tips? Thanks in advanced
Hey friends,
So it's come down to fulfill the things we've been preaching about the last few months. SPX took out the resistances one at a time on the way up (like in the videos we post) but at our "The Top is In" video we reiterated that the 2134 top was going to be the top for a while and today's post-BOJ, post-Fed clearly shows how quickly the market can deflate.
So now I'm plotting out an approximate move for both bull and bear case Here/ I'm labelling clearly the highest probability case for the decision point of bull or bear market with estimated timing.
We've been mentioning that bumping against a resistance that is from an ATH, and then just blasting through an ATH without a pull back first was such a low probability trade. Every hopeful bull in the world based a bull market on a 5 point a day trickle up to Fed day... for reasons I never understood. They believed we'd just walk right through a year long resistance and a $Trillion dollar wall with ease. But actually what it was, was shorts getting impatient and call buying to protect their stubborn positions. A little re-positioning to gamble on a rate hike (which we never got). So "massive bull market going to ATH and beyond this month!" Not at all. You can't decide bull market from the highs. That's not how trading works.
The decision point is actually made at the first major dip, like the Anatomy of a Bull Market video I made a few months back. You have a bump against some resistance (c,b, or a from the videos) then a pull back first, and it's then where the pivot forms. At that dip (which is likely coming now over the next week or two) you will see the real volume of the bulls and bears fighting it out at which the market either flies to new ATH and beyond, or bounces down like a basketball falling down the stairs ending in an August/September crash to 1600.
Either way you subscribe, as we said for months both the bull and bear case have shared trading paths, and this is it. The market isn't decided yet, and everything said now is just opinions, and nobody knows what the money will do at the pivot. The key points are highlighted in the chart with the most likely candidate being the 38.2% fib retrace, patterning after other dips in the last two years, which is a 2040 (assumed that 2070 is lost in the next few days).
So for those of you with money out there in the market, invest wisely and understand that there is a lot of science and math behind the scenes of what most perceive as random. It's not. If it was, nobody would make consistent money ;)
Be safe out there, bulls and bears alike, because the REAL chop will come at 2040. Except it will be +/- 40-100 point moves, not +/- 10.
DTP_Matt
the main question that we generally ask to ourselves when we choose to put resources into stocks is what amount of cash I have to begin putting resources into stocks and numerous sorts of inquiries that identified with the same subject, so before we beginning we need to decide our objectives, would you say you are searching for cash? On the other hand you require cash for living or Etc. very helpful explanation http://ift.tt/247qzXA
A month ago, at the suggestion of three posts in this sub, I bought GSL at 1.26. Today I hit 80%. I'm very new to trading and want to know what factors for the ship leasing company I should research to determine when or even if to sell. Any help is appreciated. Thanks!
I think I'm going to buy some.. if it goes little bit lower.. what do you think guys? this Delta deal and many to follow.. I think this is a start of a great canadian comback story.
The Bank Of Japan has let markets down by keeping its stimulus package unchanged at time when traders expected the central bank to roll out fresh stimulus package. Singapore NSE Nifty fell 50 points from its highs of 8034 this morning and is trading at 7968. The outcome of the FOMC meet was neutral and Global markets remained unchanged after the meeting. Nifty is poised to open gap down this morning and the Index might see a volatile trading session as traders rollover their positions to the next expiry. Ambuja, Idea, Dabur and HCL Tech will be in focus today as they are due to release their results today.
Sorry for the caps, this is copied directly from my news wire. USD/JPY way down in trading tonight, the /ES took a 20 point dive, the /DX fell and after the parsers let go of oil/dollar trade, /CL it started to fall too. Market could reset once Europe starts to trade, but -20 might be hard to recover all of it. We shall see.
News:
1)BOJ KEEPS MONETARY POLICY STEADY, MAINTAINS 80 TRLN YEN BASE MONEY TARGET AND 0.1 PCT NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE
2)BOJ: JAPAN CORE CPI EXPECTED +0.5 PCT IN FY2016/17 VS +0.8 PCT PROJECTED IN JAN
3)BOJ: JAPAN REAL GDP EXPECTED +1.2 PCT IN FY2016/17 VS +1.5 PCT PROJECTED IN JAN
Friends,
Today's market update comes in video form here just like last week's. We like to have fun calling the major market moves and highlight the important leading indicators both technically and fundamentally.
With that aside, bear or bull I make money trading both sides and will buy dips as appropriate, I scalp /CL as a primary source of income and today's long /CL was just as good as yesterday's. For those who don't know me I was a mod here until I started my own trading group, I am a futures trader by career, and I'm knowledgeable in both fundamental and technical trading so these videos are for the community.
So all you bear haters out there, just know that I also long with the best of them too :P
If you are curious as to my actual trades I post pictures, entries and exits, p&l and all of that in both the chatroom and on stocktwits if you are curious as to what I'm trading. I'm also soon to be live streaming.
Thanks for watching!
DTP_Matt
Both Chipotle food and their stock are looking tasty to me. I'm a believer in the Chipotle's brand and that they will recover. It's just a matter of calling the bottom of the stock price.
Anyone have any particular levels at which they will buy Chipotle?
wow, this place went silent. no more "should i short everything or just sell everything I have?"
all time highs tomorrow or it stops short? i have it coming just short, 2120ES max.
You know it was a bad quarter, when the CEO spend the first 8 minutes of the conference call trying to hype everyone up before the sobering news.
This is $380 at some point.. then i re-evaluate
I'd like to write my own trading software in R (using quantmod) or python. Is there any brokerage or software service that has an API for direct access to the market? Also possibly providing live data through a related API? Right now I can do technical analysis of yesterday's data with R, but it would be nice to be able to submit trades directly from my analysis tool.
What would be the best penny stock to invest in
Take a look at this one. I've been in since November and they've been rebounding. 1Q earnings were good news. This company's earnings come out May 4th and it's looking good.
Is any one else concerned that the Dow is hitting 18,000 after the start of this year. If not share why and vice versa
Hey traders and investors, Please i need you to help me with your knowledge and wealth of experiences. What do you think i should know about equity crowdfunding before investing in it.
Oh the humanity!
This was a rough one!
I do not pay a lot of attention to the market and have had my investments in bonds for the last year or so to avoid the drop I believed would come. The market did poorly, in general, during 2015 so I felt good about this move but my plan was to move into agressive growth funds once I felt the market corrected itself and was at what ever bottom it was going to go into. Where are we in this theory? Is the market going to bump along at a virtual zero? Is there a better grand strategy that I should deploy?
Thank you in advance.
The price of oil has surprised many. A lot of traders predicted that the outcome of the meeting on Doha will result to lower price of oil. But oil seems to be going bullish. Do you think this will continue? what are your thoughts? will oil go back as low as 30usd per barrel?
I've started reading Trades About to Happen by David Weis. The author discusses reverse trend lines and reverse trend channels. I don't fully understand why he uses them. While I understand and am able to draw them, I feel that in most of the examples presented a suitable regular (non-reverse) trend line/channel would fit just as well. Can someone explain the need for reverse trend lines/channels in layman's terms? Are there particular trends (I believe the author alludes to steepness of trend, but I have not seen a compelling example) which are difficult to capture using a regular trend line/channel?
I just want to do some study on the timeline of their collapse. Not sure if SEC or SEDAR still keep their filings online. Any insight would be highly appreciated.
I recently downloaded robinhood in hopes to start purchasing/selling/trading stocks. But im a complete beginner, where do i begin? What do i study? I already know what stocks i want to invest in. Is it good to purchase when the prices are low, and then sell them when it rises?
Just looking for some guidance.
Nifty might see a selling pressure as Saudi Arabia’s Oil Output forecasts raised by BMI as Doha Deal Fails. As the Crude weakens below 42.58, we might see sharp selloff in Nifty today. Against the backdrop of a mixed trend in fellow Asian equities, the NSE Nifty is likely to witness a mild gap down opening on Tuesday.
I know this answer will vary from institution to institution but, what would be the average time a market maker executes trades ?
And if so, what ones?
I am just now at 24 years old interested in investing in the stock market. Becoming employed at a bank has given me a lot of insight as to why it is important to invest and put my money elsewhere besides a savings account. I was just looking for some advice on how to get started. I understand there is a lot of risk involved and you have to really know what you're doing to profit. For starters I was thinking of starting with acorns and just dumping my spare change and little money here and there into it, and as it grows and I learn more about stocks, maybe move to something like robinhood and invest more money. Any tips, advice, or pointers would be extremely appreciated!
Range Markets on the cards as FED FOMC and Japan’s BOJ’s rate decision awaited later this week. Against the backdrop of a bearish trend across fellow Asian peers, the Nifty is set to witness a negative opening on Monday as investors stick to a cautious approach ahead of central bank decisions from the US and Japan this week, while bracing themselves for the next batch of Q4 earnings data that may signal the state of the health of Asia’s third biggest economy. ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, Axis Bank and Idea Cellular will be eyed this week for the January-March 2016 quarter earnings releases. RIL may be in focus today after the company, in after-market hours on Friday, posted a 16 per cent, year- on -year rise in net income at Rs 7,398 crore in Q4 FY 2015-16, the highest in more than eight years driven by a jump in refining and petrochemical margins. Volatility may remain high this week at the NSE Nifty ahead of the expiry of the April F&O contracts on Thursday. Read More.........
I want dive into the not so recent past in more technical sense. I want the opposite of the Wall Street movies. I want to get in the trader's mind and learn about their methodologies so I can compare their actions and the reasons behind their actions to what goes on today.
Baidu is the dominant search engine in China trading for 12x TTM Free cash flow. I wrote a full write-up on my blog post. Hope you enjoy it. http://ift.tt/1NHKsaM
Hi folks,
Been a long time lurker and finally decided to sign up.
Its been years since ive traded and things have come on a long way in that time. Just wondering if anyone has any recommendations on a UK cloud trading platform that has automated trading strategies EMA etc ideally with api links into xero for tax returns etc.
I'd looked at plus500, ninjatrader and IG but just wondering if there are any better alternatives?
Any suggestions welcome.
Thanks
I have $3,000 saved up & I would like to invest in S&P 500 but after a 30 minutes of research and looking at the history of the S&P 500 I think another crash is on the horizon. Would it be sense able to proceed anyway and invest?
Hi, haven't really been able to find this anywhere but the question deals with swaps. Specifically asset swaps. If I have two assets with identical cashflows or returns, can I engage in an asset swap where the underlying assets change hands instead of like a normal swap where you trade interest rates?
(Choose your market from the Menu on your left) http://ift.tt/1PrHXMo
Disclosure: this is an observation/opinion post on ALKS (the producer of Vivitrol) and the increased sales potential of that drug based on reform in the addiction treatment industry.
I mistakenly posted this in /WSB, this really isn't their cup of tea since it's not an overnight YOLO gamble. I work in the addiction marketing industry and some big changes are happening. Medication assisted treatment is the direction this industry will be forced to take. People are sick and tired of the same old message about addiction, traditional treatment is widely ineffective. We know that the public has been inundated with the same tired marketing message. We know that many people lack faith in traditional treatment protocols. We know that there is an awareness by the public that relapse is common, even after successive treatments.
The payers are starting to demand treatment that is evidence/science/outcome based. We’re already seeing the push back…insurance won’t continue to fund treatment services with poor outcome studies. In S. Florida, Cigna already has treatment centers scrambling to adjust. I personally know treatment center owners who are owed millions by Cigna, they are starting to apply the breaks on payouts for traditional treatment practices. The fact is that the majority of addicts who enter an inpatient treatment facility will relapse within the first year, and most relapse multiple times thereafter. The traditional treatment revenue model is propped up by alumni, the revolving door of treatment keeps addicts coming back in to facilities because they are offered nothing more than counseling and willpower. Most practices have not yet caught wind, but a changing tide is coming and the media, government and insurance companies are all increasing their attention on medication assisted treatment protocols. I'm not talking about addictive opioid substitutes like suboxone and methadone, I'm talking Naltrexone (specifically Vivitrol).
Alkermes (ALKS) addiction drug Vivitrol is a game changer in an industry that has barely begun to recognize it or incorporate it into their practices. long-term growth potential is underrated. I work for a marketing company and our main objective is to socialize and mainstream a protocol that is based on incorporating Naltrexone (Vivitrol) into traditional treatment practices. In just eight weeks, spending less than $40k on national TV/Radio, we generated over 20,000 phone inquiries from people all over the US wanting this form of treatment....the response was insane vs the media dollars spent. The public simply isn't aware of this treatment protocol, nor has Alkermes been successful in socializing it because it's not a standalone product....it has to be combined with detox, then treatment, then aftercare (taking the Vivitrol shot every month to prevent relapse). We have projected as a mere function of marketing spend, that demand will exceed 150,000 inquiries per month by the third quarter of 2016. What does this mean for ALKS? Our marketing initiative has barely taken off, our test spend was pennies vs the capital we are preparing to deploy. Even without our media campaign, ALKS is up over 40% in the past month. Vivitrol sales are measly compared to what they could be when our message is airing nationwide 24/7 generating hundreds of thousands of inquires every month seeking treatment that incorporates Vivitrol. When the payers stop paying for traditional treatment (already happening), when the government starts increasing attention on science based/outcome based medication treatment protocols (already happening) and when the public starts asking for these protocols.....Vivitrol sales will skyrocket.
WDC like so many other value stocks has taken it on the chin the past ~12 months. The market didn't like the SNDK deal, the stock can't seem to catch a break. STX kind of set the stage last week. Is anyone a buyer, and why?
best guide that will enable you to start investing in stocks with only 1000$ or less http://ift.tt/1pSaPG7
Hey! If I started an in depth blog following my journey investing in the stock market, how many people would follow that or be interested in that?
Ask more questions if you have any! :)
GOOG, FB, SBUX, V, MSFT, all diving after hours. The slow trickle up bull market had no catalyst to bring it down. Without any direct stimulus from the Fed, a poor earnings season can be what pokes a hole in this bull bubble quicker than you can say moo
Not that I'm anti-bull, I've just been a bull for six years. And when the fundamentals stop making sense to be bullish and start screaming at you that things aren't looking so great (unemployment up, home sales down, retail sales down, Q1 earnings are bad), it makes sense to stop being bullish and start being smart.
Come watch it all burn with us live at 6:00 EST link to live market recap video here
(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O) quarterly adjusted profit missed analysts' estimates as a continued slump in personal computer sales hurt the company's core Windows business, sending its shares down 4 percent in extended trading.
The company's net income fell to $3.76 billion, or 47 cents per share, in the third quarter ended March 31, from $4.99 billion, or 61 cents per share, a year earlier.
Sorry if I am posting this in the wrong sub, I cannot find another subreddit to match my research criteria. http://goo.gl/forms/7Iv2XhsSSC its only 2 questions long and i would really appreciated if anyone can fill it out.
Fitbit stock were at $50 last summer but sank to a quarter of that through the winter. They have been seen as competing with Apple watch and coming second. Fitbit, at their last results, were financially healthy, with no debt and a small mountain of cash. They show exponential sales growth and make a gross margin of 48.2% . I am long as of last week @ $1.70 and have had a roller coaster ride so far through all the shorting. Will they surprise or disappoint. If you comment it is only fair to mention if you have an interest short or long.
Hi guys. I'm looking for some active traders that trade on Twitter. I did a google search in hopes that someone had compiled a list already but it seems that some of those lists are either non-existent or are a couple of years old.
Who do you guys follow on Twitter?
Hello. I'm using a stock screener currently in order to maximize a sharpe ratio that analyzes the S&P500 indefinitely. What criteria would benefit me in attaining a pretty high sharpe ratio? So far i'm screening market cap > 600m, div yield between 1% - 15%, P/E between 1-5, and a beta < 0.5. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
What happened to that stock since 2008? It was at pennies and now trades for over $50 and has a dividend of almost 4%. Are there people who got rich off of this? I was buying tickets today and wondered how they were doing financially
I'm very, very green. I've just been dabbling in securities over the past few months. I remember always thinking as a teen, when I'd first see him on TV, that it was mostly just a sideshow and no truly sound advice comes from him. How is he regarded amongst this community and other investing groups? Also, what are some publications/websites for solid stock analysis and advice?
I was wondering if anyone trades in foreign stockmarkets? I have checked out Hong Kong stockmarket and seen some large companies who have P/E around 2 also Australia is supposed to provide good returns. US is a mine field of stocks that are never going to provide a return or stocks that are being shorted for no good reason. Same for LSE. Germany seem to have a lack of volatility and stocks get bought in huge fix size lots.
We made this video Sunday, but it is where we called for the exhaustion of the CL / SPX / ES / RUT / NDAQ and a few others this week. Can be seen here. Usually we take tickers from the community live on the YouTube stream so if you guys have any questions always welcome to tune in live.
WTI Crude chart from 4/6/2016. As explained in the video the beginning of the year is buying season for oil contracts, and without and good fundamentals to support a longer term bullish trend, the breakdown of the Doha talks, and Iran and now Russia both commenting on increasing production, WTI we are bearish on going forward as the price stabilizes in the mid 30's to upper 40's at maximum through the summer, but if the SPX pulls back hard oil could take the same path.
SPX from 4/12/2016 was when we called for a 2098 pop-top exhaustion led by a few things, the target coincides with a major long term resistance we had been speaking about in our videos for a month, it's also a 50% fib extension from the last consolidation break. $NDAQ took a hard move to the downside early in the morning led by the FANG's which was a leading indicator of weakness to the bull trade. Coupled with the worsening factors in the economy such as unemployment up, retail sales down, new builds for homes down, nothing is exactly looking bullish. This move up is old bears covering longer term shorts as part of this $1 trillion open short interest that is looming above the market. These upper targets are going to be battles every step of the way and a clear path to new all time highs won't be so easily obtained as the first week in May is only a few weeks away. Historically this is known to be when corrections on bull moves happen. Ultimately a healthy retracement will see the SPX back into the 2050's at least. Short term bearish on SPX as it moves out of overbought territory and old bears are resetting their shorts at these higher spots
We'll try to keep these calls coming as we always do, trying to give a callout for both the bull and bear case on a daily basis before they happen. And if you'd like me to give some technical / fundamental analysis on any securities in particular just post them up.
Happy trading friends.
I'm new to the stock market, and made a dumb move by barely doing any research before buying.
I figured US oil production would return to higher levels in a couple of months. I bought $50 worth of SSE stock @ 0.63. I just read that they plan on filing for bankruptcy.
Should I sell now @ 0.22 for a loss or should I wait and hope that it bounces back some?
Been hearing a lot about Robinhood lately, but $0 commission sounds too good to be true to me. What's the catch? How are they making money?
Given the outcome of the the meeting at Doha, is Oil to finish bearish again this year or is there a chance for it to go bullish? What are your thoughts and predictions..
I just sold my position in BCM.V on the TSX at about 400% gain over the last 3 months(a post from a while back when BCM was just 50-60 cents: its was 2.45 today http://ift.tt/1RcrIT1 ). As the gold price seems to be taking off due to new Chinese demand from the Shanghai-Yuan index, I’m looking for undervalued gold exploration companies with reserves and intentions to develop and mine. Check out Kaminak (Kam) on the TSE:
Getting absolutely hammered today, very glad I got out at 108 a few days ago. Think today is an opportunity to get back in, or is it gonna keep falling?
and if machine learning algorithms are to perform well, they must use training data. So if one were to train a neural net or some algorithm to trade the stock market and make money, one would train it with existing stock market data.
After training, they lock in the weights, and that's the neural net that is used as an input-output machine and given money to play in the market. How many different machine learning algorithms do you think are actually used, that actually have enough money to sway the market? There are likely some bots that are essentially throwing around billions of dollars an hour for the largest algorithmic investing firms, and these bots are precisely trained and tested against real-world scenarios.
The bots learn from the past. So the more the stock market is traded with algorithms (which has been the trend) the more the future will look like the past, but averaged out across those few dozen or hundred different algorithm designs that essentially drive the stock market today.
TL;DR: The more the market is traded with algorithms that are trained from the past behavior of the S&P 500, the more the future market behavior will begin to look like an averaged-out version of the past.
Reference chart of the S&P 500, note the 3 humps of around 2000, 2008, and today
A little background. I have Simple retirement plan that I max out with a advisor/broker in mutual funds, I am ineligible for a Roth and I buy single stocks for long term gains, DIS, FLO, CSX, DVA, MRO, VTR, AAPL, WPZ etc. I also like to play with stocks that I buy for short term gains, hence my question. I struggle to sell when they reach my preset sell point to lock in gains. I wonder if any of you buy stocks to sell at a certain % gain? I have been using 15% as my sell point, how do you think this strategery will work out for me? I am inexperienced only 3 months in buying single stocks with intentions of selling them. Thank you for your thoughts.
Netflix Seen Posting Worst Earnings In Over 3 Years investors.com
With Netflix (NFLX) investing heavily in its global expansion, Wall Street is expecting the Internet TV service to report its lowest earnings per share in over three years when it posts first-quarter results after the close Monday.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Netflix to earn 3 cents a share in Q1, down 40% from the year-earlier quarter. That would be the company’s lowest EPS total since the fourth quarter of 2012, when it reported 2 cents in earnings per share.
Netflix sales are seen rising 25% to $1.965 billion in the March quarter when it completed its international expansion, excluding China.
Analysts don’t see EPS growth returning at Netflix until the fourth quarter.
For the next several quarters, the focus of investors will be on subscriber growth and whether Netflix can continue to add new customers at a quick pace.
In the December quarter, Netflix added 5.59 million new streaming subscribers, bringing its total to 74.76 million subscribers worldwide. Netflix added 1.56 million U.S. streaming subscribers and 4.04 million international subscribers in Q4.
Hey guys/girls you might remember me from last week. I got a fair share of positive reviews on our write up from last week, If you missed it last week you can view it here: Market Outlook 4/11-4/15/2016
You can read it HERE with embedded images or view the text version below.
Market Summary
This week we saw a grind to the upside in the markets as investors continue to go long. While the charts look bullish there are some concerns. Volatility and volume are overall low. Very low. Even on average volume days the volatility was quite suppressed which shows that the sideways action we are experiencing could be coming to an end. This is not necessarily bullish or bearish, it is moreso a sign that the markets are waiting on something. Complacency can’t continue forever, even if it can go on for quite a while. Regardless, many of the bearish trendlines are broken across the market, so the bearish case is well battered and bruised in the face of the upward melt. The only thing that can bring it down is a drawn-out selloff in oil.
A note on Volatility
While we may see volatility at near lifetime lows in many of the index products, we must respect that on Friday the move was exactly within the predicted by the insanely low vol. So even though everyone knows volatility must revert at some point, nobody knows when, and inventorying long volatility is incredibly expensive. Be careful with products like UVXY and TVIX as they can reach into your pocket and steal all your sweet rolls if you time them poorly. Long term holding of these products is even worse as the leverage drag starts to crush any chance of making up your losses without a pronounced and outsized move in the indexes.
Deciding Factors for Next Week
This weekend the top oil producing nations (including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia) met in Doha, Qatar to discuss a possible freeze on oil output. The meeting was this Sunday (4/17). To no surprise these nations were not able to come to an agreement. The meeting ended up being a near bust, and ended just hours after beginning. This is not a positive outlook going forward because if these nations struggle to agree on freezing production, it may be very difficult when the time comes to cut production, if applicable.
SPX Overview
Last week the SPX was neutral. Despite multiple market attempts to move, all intraday pressure was to the unchanged side. Beige continues in the SPX, Janet Yellen must be so proud. We said to look for support at the 200 SMA and for resistance at 2,080. Heading into Monday we are starting to look slightly bullish. As stated last week, “The key for this rally to turn into a reversal is for 2,072-75 to become support instead of resistance. From there the markets will be able to move forward.” If you look ever since the S&P busted through and broke 2,075 (blue line) and it has been using it as a support line since. In addition the MACYD remains above the 0 line holding the bullish trend and this week the stochRSI broke the 20 line, putting it into a bullish trend as well. The 10 SMA (green) and 20 (orange) are already above the 200 but now the 50 is also coming up and starting to positively slope a lot. Heading into next week look for support at 2,062, 2,075 as well as resistance at 2,092 and 2,103. The 2,080 line will work as a pivot point. The biggest thing that can break the possible bullish cycle is the OPEC meeting, which seems bearish from early reports. Considering this did not go over very well there could be a major selloff in oil which could also bring the markets down with it.
Something else to take into consideration was the consolidation that SPX went through two weeks ago. Typically if the market consolidates before a major trendline and continues to push forward afterwards, it shows that it has strength going into that trendline with enough power to break it. One last thing to keep in mind are the movements of other indices like Dow Jones Industrial ($DJI), and the Russell 2000 ($RUT). Both of these are sitting at major trendlines/price levels. They approached these levels last week and it resulted in little to no giveback. Given that they are showing strength at these levels, we could see some major breaks here.
Commodities (Technical Analysis):
Natural Gas, /NG
This is the chart from last week. Last weekend for Natural Gas we compared it to a very similar setup that it was previously in. This setup gave us a bearish bias for NG and it ended up closing down over 4% this week. The more important thing we pointed out was that NG was in a wedge pattern. When something is in a wedge pattern that sets it up for a breakout. Let’s take a close look to see how this played out.
The white arrow is where we made the call last week. You can see it played almost perfectly inside of the wedge until it finally broke to the downside. The previous slight break above was around 2 AM, and did not confirm a breakout. The break to the downside closed below, a lot more significant. In addition if you pull up the daily charts for this week, the fast MACD has dropped below the zero line and the slow is about to as well. In addition the stochRSI has broken below the 20 line meaning it has entered a bearish trend. This leaves us slightly bearish heading into next week.
Oil, /CL
Last week were we bullish oil and said, “With the bullish indicators it looks like a test for the 200 SMA is quite possible.” As you can see, oil gapped right up to the 200 SMA. Which is the first time it has broken it in roughly 14 months. Since the low at $26, oil has been making higher highs and higher lows, which is shown with the yellow lines. However, recently on the last pullback to 35.20, oil actually made lower lows and then on the rally, the highs were slightly lower as well. This can be mean a couple of things, it is either in a downtrend or it is forming a channel. Regardless, oil just close below the 200 SMA, had a negative cross on the MACD, and the K period broke 80 on the stochRSI which leans towards it heading down. On a technical level we are bearish oil heading into next week.
Gold, /GC
Last week we noted that, “Gold is looking bullish here,” and it ended up making a nice run from 1,240 to about 1,265 where it was rejected. While we were bullish gold we also made note “Gold seems to be potentially channeling so do not expect new 52 week highs without some sort of a catalyst.” This is exactly what gold seems to be doing right now, forming a channel. Look for support at 1,210 and resistance at 1,245 and 1,265. Right now the MACD is below the 0 line and the stochRSI has broken below 80 and is heading for 20. On the other hand, the moving averages continue to look bullish as the 10 actually broke above the 20 which is bullish; and the moving averages are actually in the Steph Curry pattern. For those that haven’t seen some of our lessons or quick analyses, this is our own funny way of saying that the 10 SMA is above the 20 SMA, both are above the 50 SMA, all three are above the 100 SMA, which are all above the 200 SMA. So overall gold is in a bullish trend; however, expect a small pullback. With the conflicting indicators this week, we are staying neutral on gold.
Amazon announcing their standalone streaming service.
Im a Prime member, so I have had it for a while and honestly, I can count on one hand how many times I have actually used it.
Netflix is a permanent fixture on all my devices.
Am I just brand loyal?
Will Amazon be able to take a big chunk from Netflix, or in the age of cordcutters, are these just your cable replacers and there is space for them both?
Knowing that the low price of oil is not for any producer interest, as a matter of fact, it is a global problem. then why is it so difficult to agree on a term that will solve it and make life easier for all producers? what are your thoughts?
Hello traders,
If you are a buy and hold investor leave now. Those of you who like to make short term trades are welcome here. The market is overbought and is going to correct very soon. I will be shorting the SPY shortly.
Here is the charting: The SPY is above the top BB. RSI is above 60. MACD line is under signal. These technicals are all bearish. We are also struggling to overcome a key resistance level around 208. Markets will fall, so why not profit during it?
Here are my current gains since January 27th 2016: http://ift.tt/1SmzRGl
*That is nearly 17% gain vs 9.5% SPY gain.
Can also follow me on Twitter I tweet as I make every trade. https://twitter.com/DayTradingGod
Leave any comments below concerning where you think the U.S. stock market is going from here.
Today's market update and calls are brought to you in video form here. Doha meeting failed, Iran doesn't wish to self-impose sanctions so they are going to max out. New contracts in the front, gapping down even with Contango still below previous contract's Friday close. Yikes!
This week XLF, XLE, and RUT bumping against major resistances. These are what we're holding the market up. If oil turns south, it's back to the same 1940 pullback we've been saying all month. And in my charts note that both bear and bull cases have a similar pullback before fully playing out. Bulls let it pull back, this might not be the dip you want to buy at.
Also glad I was short oil and long TVIX going into Friday. Happy to wake up to that tomorrow.
Happy trading everyone!
Nifty short term trend is a buy and opening near Wednesday high but the spike down in Crude Oil Price will effect market sentiments in trading today, however big buying was seen by FII and Pros yesterday as Nifty on last trading day opened gap up by 70 points and continue to move higher to make a new high of 7890 while closing at 7860.The market upside rally was broad based with Bank Nifty making a new monthly high of 16416 with Small Cap Index breaking the gap level of 5090 to close at 5115. However today a correction day is on the cards and markets can give a correction by 100-125 points from recent high of 7890.
Here's the link http://ift.tt/1qzRCse
Feel free to come hang out. I'm also in the chat for this subreddit (I think, lol) I'm at the computer so I'll be here a while.
It is a website that shows useful informations about stock, like analyst rating, insider trading ops and hedge funds portfolios. They have interesting features but I don't if they are trustful and if it is worth buying the service. Here is their link: http://ift.tt/1meFTFE
So I've been extensively reading into trading options lately... can anyone give me advice on how to get started? Maybe even some trades that you do yourself?
Looking for a prop firm that doesnt require a series license, and can trade OTC stocks.
Also, anyone trading with CY group online? If so PM me.
Every Investor wants to become successful. We can become successful investors and can beat market by few points every year. We can learn to outperform through our hard work, above average IQ, experience and reading, having an MBA is an added advantage. These things are necessary to become great investor, but in and of themselves aren’t enough because all of them can be duplicated by others. That’s why only less than 1% people with above qualities can actually become great investor.
Reading is extremely important, but it won’t give you added advantage over others. Everyone reads a lot in this business. Reading helps you to keep up. It’s not necessary to have correlation between your portfolio performance and number of books you read. Once you reach a certain knowledge point, there are diminishing to reading more. In fact, reading too much news can actually be detrimental to performance because you start to believe crap news.
MBA is just a way to learn how to exactly, precisely, equal the market return. You can reduce the tracking errors dramatically by getting an MBA. But you can’t become great investor by having MBA from top business school because lessons of great investing can be taught.
Experience is another over-rated thing. It’s incredibly important, but can’t be source of competitive advantage over others. It’s just another thing that is just required for admission. At some point the value of experience reaches the point of diminishing returns. If that’s was not true, all the money managers would have their best years in their 60s and 70s and 80s, and we know that’s not true.
So what are those competitive advantages that great investors have? For a company, if their competitors know their secret and yet can’t copy it, that’s a structural advantage. That’s called moat. Similarly, great investors possess moat or traits that can’t be duplicated unless you have them hard wired into your brain at childhood. It is very difficult to possess them in adulthood. These traits have nothing to do with your IQ, qualification, experience or knowledge. They have to do with your psychology and behavior. Well, there are at least seven traits great investors have.
Trait #1 is ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric. It sounds very simple, but when market is crashing, almost no one has courage to buy. When marker is going up every day, you can’t bring yourself to sell because if you do so, you think you will fall behind others.
Trait #2 is obsessive about playing game and wanting to win. Great investors don’t just enjoy investing, they live it. They wake up in the morning and first thing they think about is a stock they have been researching or one of the stock they are thinking about selling, or what the greatest risk to their portfolio is and how they are going to neutralize that risk. Their head is always in cloud and dreaming stocks.
Trait #3 is willingness to learn from past mistakes. The thing that is so hard for people and what sets great investors apart is an intense desire to learn from their own mistakes so they can avoid repeating them. Most people would just move on ignore the dumb things they have done in the past. If you ignore mistakes without fully analyzing them, you will undoubtedly make a similar mistake later in your career. And in fact, even if you analyze them it’s tough to avoid repeating the same mistake.
Trait #4 is inherence sense of risk based on common sense. Common sense is the great risk control. Great investors control risk using common sense not by computer models.
Trait #5 is confidence in own conviction. Great investors have extreme confidence on their own conviction and stick with them, even when facing criticism. Buffet never gets into the dot-com mania though he was criticized publicly for ignoring technology stocks when they were booming. Instead putting 20% of portfolio into a stock, investors with low conviction will put only 2% into it. 2% position is equivalent of betting on a stock that has only 51% chance of going up. Why would you waste your time even making that bet?
Trait #6, it’s important to have both sides of your brain working, not just the left side (the side that’s good at math and organization). Smart people have only one side of their brains working, and that is enough to do well in the world but not enough to be an entrepreneurial investor who thinks differently from masses. On the other hand, if your right side of brain is dominant, you probably loath math and therefore, you don’t often find these people in world of finance to begin with. As an investor, you need to perform calculations and have a logical investment thesis. This is your left brain working. But you also need to be able to do things such a judging a management team from subtle cues they give off.
Trait #7, the most important and rarest trait of all is the ability to live though volatility without changing your investment thought process. This is almost impossible for most people to do. People don’t like short-term pain even if it would result in better long-term results. Very few investors can handle the volatility required for high portfolio returns. Risk is that if you wrong about a bet you make, you lose money. A swing up or down over a relatively short time period is not a loss and therefore not a risk unless you are prone to panicking at the bottom and locking in losses.
Courtney: Gist of Mark Sellers talk at Boston business school
Will this apply if I'm using a cash account?
Another live lesson from us in after-hours. Recorded since we hit the max on our hosting service, so I figured some people in here might be interested in learning the misconceptions of the indicator, as well as the actual applications of said tool. Enjoy!
I was curious if having stock in one of these two etfs would benefit if there was a market crash, or would they fall with the rest of the market?
Something tells me when I'm finally able to get back into my account I will find all cash balances have been used to purchase shares of $WFC. Is that what they mean by "bail-in"?
I'm really new to trading. I started out with 3d stocks in mid 2014. Currently at a profit, making me really happy. For those not believing in the technology and saying it's dead: please go check the charts for DDD for example. Up by %200 since the beginning of the year. Just not sure how long this run will last + sorry for no formating. I'm on mobile.
Just thought I'd share since I'm always sharing trading tips, videos, and my market opinions with you guys, I never really have shared my actual gains or trades before. It's the Internet, anyone can say anything...but yes, I do actually trade! And off the same charts and videos I used to post here every single day. I'm sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always thorough and risk averse as much as possible. At this stage of the game I part with my experience and knowledge for free just to pay forward the many blessings I have had in life and in my trading.
Thank you all for listening to my ramblings and for having me as a mod around here before an obsessive troll decided to ruin all of our fun here. It's hard to be successful in this world and help others I guess there's that one person who just don't like you for it.
But I've never really had an AMA, so you guys are welcome to ask me anything you want about trading, about our trading group, or even about me personally.
Making sense of this bull run. Today's market moving analysis brought to you in video form. Come learn how I made a killing shorting oil today and also shorting through the night, and why that's the better bet from here.
Analysts have been forecasting a possible 7% to 8% decline in the market over the next month or so due to the belief that this will be a very poor earnings season, maybe the worst since 2009. What are your thoughts on buying, say, $SPXS and holding until earnings season is over?
Hi all, I have been using a platform called BUX for a few weeks now and thought I'd spread the word. It's a new startup stock-trading app that is very accessible to people interested in learning to trade (they provide regular news articles that explain what's going on with the markets) and the community supplies resistance and support levels via the in-app forums. Fees are minimal, the support is great and the broker is FCA regulated.
It's an awesome startup and I highly recommend it (and no I don't work for them). If you're interested in signing up, mention my username ("kins98") at sign up to receive a welcome bonus :)
Moving average is the technical tool for creating trading strategy. Understand the concept of this Average & interpret MACD in a better way here. To read more read http://ift.tt/1Q65pfk
The Indian benchmark Nifty remained in a range on Tuesday. After the sharp buying on Monday the index consolidated yesterday to close above the PDH of 7712. Small Cap Index which has been the pillar of the market showed considerable strength has achieved its target of 5090 after making a high of 5083. This suggests that after the euphoric buying seen in the last two days we might see a pause as we are heading towards a truncated weekend in the days ahead. Open Interest data has shown buying on two consecutive days by Propriety and FII which suggests that the view is turning bullish. The short term trend will change to buy if Nifty trades above 7800 today on a closing basis. Bank Nifty will be the Index to watch today as 16260-16340 are the next resistance levels and its is imperative for Bank Nifty break these levels in order to sustain the bull run.
So I've been investing for a couple months now to learn how it works and get a feel for it. Recently I've been reading about how although oil stock prices are low right now they could go up in the future, specially during the upcoming summer. I want to invest $1000 in oil companies with the end goal of making the most profit by the end of summer. So not a long term goal. The two companies I have been looking at are $NOG and %USO. Do you have any advice regarding those companies or do you know of a better company to invest in?
Thanks.
Hello,
A few people had the idea last month to build a discussion channel on the powerful Discordapp platform. The channel revolves around the current state of affair in business, finance, trading and entrepreneurship, and sometimes politics.
Now that the channel is fully fledged we are trying to ramp up the user base by advertising it on multiple platforms.
If you want to come and try it out, we can be found at this link.
We would be really happy that you come join us to enrich the community with your experience, questions and curiosity.
One of my favorite trades in a while...chart is a thing of beauty now :)
The market might stay in a range today. Nifty will be a buy only if it crosses 7777. Nifty saw a sharp buying towards the later half of the day yesterday. The Index registered its buying from the levels of 7533 and closed at 7693 after making a high of 7712. India’s CPI data is due to be released today at 5:30 in the evening. The previous CPI for the month of Jan was at 5.18 while the current expectation is at 5 %.
This was wrote on 4/10/16 but I figured some of you could still benefit from this. If it seems to be helpful and is supported on the sub reddit I will do my best to post it Sunday on a weekly bases.
Market Overlook 4/11 - 4/15/2016
This week the S&P 500 and the overall markets are resting inside of a three week consolidation. With the large number of recent Fed meetings as well as more upcoming meetings, it seems the markets are being pulled in both directions. The S&P has hit highs of 2,075 and until it can break the 2,080 level it is still in an overall bearish trend. The key for this rally to turn into a reversal is for 2,072-75 to become support instead of resistance. From there the markets will be able to move forward. April markets are in full swing and I expecting to see normal to higher than average volume in the coming weeks as building excitement into earnings season. This season we should expect a number of disappointments around the market with a few key exceptions. Retail is an area with a number of overbought stocks that are just asking for reality checks. We were treated to a number of Fed talks last week, and as usual, nothing happened.The Fed was not very aggressive at all. In fact, they expect less growth and inflation. The Fed still projects for there to be two rate hikes in 2016. I belief and have for sometime that the Fed has far less effect on the market than they believe they do. When you consider the only interest rate they actually have access to is the Fed Funds rate, which is exceptionally short term, it’s pretty interesting that they feel they can influence 30 year deliverables with their inaction. The actual market reaction to Fed leader Yellen shows any market sentiment changes caused by a “Fed Talk" is temporary. These can provide some exceptional opportunities for nimble traders to profit from these market extremes. I hope any Fed news this week causes just as much two-sided action as always.
This is my short list on things I am following and watching for in the week ahead.
For SPX I think we are seeing a few critical things here. The very first is that the market is still in a bearish trend overall. Which is odd given the last few weeks. But since the all time highs we have seen lower high patterns and despite this recent run up we came up short. Market can’t seem to break the 2,080 levels continuing the bearish pattern. If you look closely we also have an overall lower lows pattern as well. We have not retraced that much so I would not call it a break just yet. The technical analysis here is pretty neutral as well. We have a lot of conflicting indicators. The first thing that looks bullish is the moving averages, In the chart you can see we have the 10 (green) and the 20 (orange) above the 200 SMA (dark blue). In addition the 50 (red) is really curling up now. What sets me off about the moving averages are that the 100 SMA (light blue) is still below the 200 SMA (dark blue). If you look back there has not been one sustained rally since the 100 SMA broke under the 200 SMA. If we also look at some of the indicators they are not looking that great either. The MACD is sloping down however, it is still above the 0 line and still has some decent divergence. The stochRSI is looking bearish. While it is oversold and can move to overbought, most decline will remain oversold for several days, so until it crosses above the 20 line, it is bearish. For SPX we need to look for two key areas for support at resistance. Look for support at the 200 SMA and resistance at 2,080.
Here are a few things I’ve seen from a Tech analysis in Commodities.
Up first Oil /CL http://ift.tt/23y9uST
From a technical analysis standpoint, oil is looking decently bullish overall.(FA on oil says we should be at $30 a barrel, but as traders/investors we play what the market is telling us and its clear the market wants oil above $36 for now…)If you look at the MACD is moving to cross above the 0 line and the stochRSI is moving up bullishly. It's moving to pass the 80 line where it would be able to really breakout. Oil was obviously in a massive downtrend and I am not calling a bottom. The upside I do think however is limited and a bigger short opportunity may be presenting itself. If we look closely, oil has been getting rejected at the 200 SMA (dark blue lines, circled area) all year long. It hasn't been able to break at all and was even rejected quite recently. With the bullish indicators it looks like a test for the 200 SMA is quite possible. Just keep in mind there really isn't anything fundamentally bullish about oil, it just looks good on a TA level.
Up next /NG: http://ift.tt/1UW7DFS
Natural Gas has been in a long uptrend and is looking quite bullish. It has been a "buy the dip" type of commodity lately. There are a few bullish things to notice here. The first is that the fast moving averages are all trending up. The 10 SMA (green) crossed the 20 SMA (orange) and just crosses the 50 SMA (red). The 20 SMA is heading towards the 50 right now as well. In addition, all three of those moving averages are sloping up and are heading for the 100 SMA (light blue). The MACD is well above the 0 line along with the fast MA above the slow MA. The stochRSI is also still quite bullish. It is heading for overbought which could let allow for it to come down to oversold but if you look back, all of its biggest runs are while its overbought.
While /NG is looking quite bullish I do have one significant concern. The main area of concern is the circled area. If you look closely, the setup is extremely similar. In the previous setup, the 10 crossed the 20, and then later crossed the 50. The 20 was heading for the 50 and then ended up breaking it; however, it was rejected quick and made new lows.
The chart is showing that we are now in a very similar setup as we are approaching the 100 SMA (light blue). It was previously broken but came down very quick and was rejected the next time it was faced. In addition, /NG is currently in a wedging pattern. You can see the movement is narrowing down and an outbreak is due soon. With all this adding up, it makes sense that NG would be in an outbreak pattern. Breaking the 100 SMA will be crucial to continue the trend up; otherwise, expect some decent movement to the downside. (Don’t forget warmer weather is on its way and could/will affect /NG)
Last but not least that shiny stuff...Gold /GC http://ift.tt/23y9uSX
From a technical analysis standpoint, gold is looking bullish here as well. There are a lot of bearish bets being placed on gold and gold miners; however, it has been showing strong support and has not broken support since the recent run-up. Not only that, we also have every single moving average now above the 200 SMA which is very bullish. In addition, we have recently had a wedge pattern break. There was a lot of downward pressure to the support but it had a big breakout towards the upside out of the wedge. With the MACD above the zero line and the stochRSI trending bullish, it looks like gold wants to run on this breakout. If it can bounce off the support of the breakout area it could start to make some real moves towards the 52 week highs. Gold seems to be potentially channeling so do not expect new 52 week highs without some sort of a catalyst. I also think gold is being helped by a overall “mood” of uncertainty still.
Things to look for in the week 4/11 - 4/15/2016 This week the biggest thing to look for is whatever comes out of the closed door Fed meeting. This was an unexpected meeting they say is under "Expedited Procedures”. This meeting is going to be on Monday and they will be discussing rates. No conclusions can be drawn from this per se; and for reference, the last time this occurred the rates were raised roughly one month later.
April expiration is two weeks away. It’s time to think about rolling your short options to the next cycle in May to collect some more premium and reduce your delta risk. Volatility has made a bit of a comeback as of Friday, but it’s more of a rumor at this point compared to the all-star stage-show it will be when it really comes back to play. And as a derivatives trader I have but one thing to say...Long live Volatility!! Bring me back to the promise land!