Since the market is down today, I thought I find out what the market performance had been for the start of the year. Here's the 15 year stat:
1999 112.03 0.15 -0.97 -0.76 0.07 2000 101.12 -1.89 -1.81 -0.76 1.27 2001 89.23 -1.47 1.08 1.94 0.74 2002 69.97 0.14 3.22 3.59 4.73 2003 89.69 0.09 -0.04 1.88 2.24 2004 99.28 -0.22 -0.46 -2 -2.18 2005 104.08 -0.54 1.76 3.42 3.06 2006 120.57 -0.41 -0.17 -0.39 0.99 2007 126.77 -0.74 -0.88 -4.99 -5.5 2008 80.13 1.43 3.01 0.89 -6.48 2009 101.24 -0.96 1.7 2.82 1.98 2010 116.48 0.02 1.04 1.11 2.82 2011 118.69 -0.49 1.59 2.01 3.06 2012 137.67 1.7 2.56 2.21 3.28 2013 182.15 0.47 -0.96 -0.63 -0.02
The columns are year, close on last day, return on last day of the year and the next three are 1, 5 and 10 day returns respectively.
Quick observation: there's about an even chance of up/down on the last day of the year, but the average return is negative(-0.18%). However, the 1,5 and 10 day returns are all pretty good at about 0.7%. However, on the years where the last day return is negative, the 1,5,10 day returns are significant lower, only about 1/3 as good as the positive year end days.
Let me know if you get anything else out of this data.
Edit: Formatting.
Submitted December 31, 2014 at 02:33PM by tigersharkwushen_ http://ift.tt/1xgTir4
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