Hi folks,
Time for another week in review for this past week! I had a really nice week with a bunch of nice trades and some amazing ideas that made others some good moolah which always feels good! I have a few things I want to fix for next week (as always) but overall, great week. I had a slightly lower win rate than the week before (this week, 11 of 19 trades were wins for a 57.89% win rate, vs 68.75% last week) but still finished green every day (actually technically I finished almost flat on Tuesday but it was still green by a very very small amount, lol). This is actually really cool for me as I have not had a red day in two straight weeks and I'm usually less consistent than that. I usually have at least one small red day every couple weeks but lately I've been really consistent and I think it's because of making these posts and planning everything out more thoroughly. So, obviously I'm going to keep it up! I'm going to take the same format as I did last week for this post...rereading my plan from each day, providing a link for it so you can check it out, and reviewing each day and looking for things I could improve. Also I want to make sure I stuck with my plan on things to fix from the weekly review last week. Alright here we go!
3/2/15 : I had a plan to short AMWD on a parabolic move over $53 but it didn't give it to me. Instead I ended up modifying my plan and taking it at $52.50 with a stop over $53 and a target of $51.50. I specifically remember this trade because I had a limit to cover it up at $51.52 and it ticked to $51.54 and then bounced 70 cents and I ended up taking it off at $52.18 for a tiny gain. I decided after that point that on thin/spready stocks, I am going to give them at least 5-10 cents above the round number for a limit. I have had this happen many times and this just reinforced it. I also shorted CYCC at $1.67 this day for a small loss, and then recovered a portion of the loss reshorting it at $1.66 and covering for a small 6c gain later in the day. This trade wasn't on my plan so it probably was not worth taking. More likely a boredom trade. Finally I traded WPRT from the plan and actually traded it exactly as I planned it, however it didn't work out. I made a small amount on it but it didn't follow through like I expected. All in all I think Monday was a good day since I stuck with my plan for the most part but sometimes the market just makes it difficult and you are forced to change your plans a bit. I had said in the previous weekly review that one thing I wanted to do this week was stick to my plans with conviction. That didn't necessarily mean not changing them, but more so not being SO RIGID that I missed opportunities. I think I accomplished this on Monday even though I had to modify the plan on AMWD so overall I'm happy w/ how the day turned out. Had my order been a bit higher on AMWD, and had WPRT cooperated, monday would have been an amazing day, but you've always just got to take what the market will give you, and sometimes it doesn't want to give much.
3/3/15 : Tuesday was not the greatest day for me however it was mostly because of sizing issues and one single bad trade that wiped out most of my gains. In reviewing my trades and plans I see that I wanted to short ONCY if it gapped up a lot and it did just that. I started shorting in pre-market per my plan and got short at $1.24. Once it started to hold after the opening bell and volume was pouring in I decided to size down the position which was a mistake. I assumed the volume meant it was going higher and I would be able to size down now and re-add even bigger at a higher price. I was wrong and it tanked while I had only a very small position. So I made a huge percentage gain on it (10.7%) but minimal profit because the sizing was off. I think this was an issue of conviction on my plan so I am going to keep that goal for this week. I need to stick to my plans with CONVICTION and trade them with power. Anyway, so ONCY was a great trade idea but not executed well. FLWS was the same way. It was actually executed perfectly per my plan but I took too little size because again the market didn't give me the exact entry I wanted and I got a bit too conservative since it wasn't my exact plan. That trade turned out to be amazing and I held it all day for a great percentage gain but again with small size so I didn't make a ton of profit. I'm ok with the fact that I went in smaller given the fact that I had to change my plan, but I need to be careful not to go TOO small ... so small as to make the trade not really worth it in terms of actual dollars. I took TSEM for a small 5 cent loss at $18.10 and that was basically just a waste of money since I was trying to get something going on a day where otherwise I was flat or had a very small gain. I am definitely going to stay away from this kind of trade next week...it was pretty much the same as CYCC. So no trades "just to make a quick buck" ... My big mistake on Tuesday was OREX. I started shorting too soon and had too much size to give it room to work, but not enough to justify covering for profit when I had a small one. So basically I analyzed this trade and decided that whenever I short parabolics intraday now I am only going to do so at pushes through round numbers. Also, I will no longer be shorting first day momentum unless it's on the back side of the move (i.e. the stock has confirmed a downtrend and already put in a top). This was a front-side move and I was trying to pick the top and got burned on it. Lastly I traded WPRT but I remember not liking the setup it gave at the $5.70 area so I took a secondary setup and only got a partial fill so I ended up taking it off flat after it refused to break 6. So with the combination of too little size on ONCY and FLWS, too much size on OREX, a flat trade on WPRT and a waste of 5 cents on TSEM, I finished Tuesday with basically just enough to cover my commissions and maybe buy lunch, lol. But there were some good takeaways from it: No shorting first day momo on the front side, no "quick buck" trades, and don't be too conservative just because the market wants you to modify your plan a bit. Being a little conservative is fine, but stick w/ the overall idea of the trade and stay as aggressive as possible.
3/4/15 : Wednesday was another great day. I killed it on CAPN per my plan from the night before and made 17% on my final sell on it. I also had a great morning long in NVGN over 4 bucks that worked instantly and started my day off with a nice profit right from the get go. At the same time, I sold my CERE swing from the night before for a 30% gain in my Robinhood account and ended up with a small flat partial fill on GENE. The only mistake I made on Wednesday was on PHMD. From the very beginning of the day I had pointed out on Twitter that I thought this was a short and I sat patiently waiting all day for the short, but finally, somehow it convinced me that it was a long. I tried it once for a very small loss, which should have just confirmed what I thought, but no! I had to go back and try it again later in the day and it really gave it to me w/ no lube! I tried to keep risk mitigated and when I stopped out it slipped an extra 6 cents when I only had 4 cents risk on it, so it basically took me for 2.5x what I had planned to lose and ate like a third of my profits for the day. At that point I was pretty pissed so I called it a day. I checked back later to see that PHMD tanked soon after it stopped me out, so my gut was right. It was a short. From this I basically am taking away to stick with my gut on trades that are not part of my plan from the night before. I was lucky I had such a huge profit on CAPN to account for the extra loss on PHMD, so I still finished nicely green, but it could have been a lot worse. All in all, still an amazing day on Wednesday and it was definitely worth the flat day I had on Tuesday. Wed was my biggest day of the week.
3/5/15 : Thursday COULD HAVE been incredible, but it turned out to be just "ok" cause of a really stupid reason: I overslept. You can read about my laziness in the next link (the 3/6/15 watchlist) so I won't go into it much here. Just suffice it to say I took away that I need to get my ass out of bed and be at my computer on time because I missed two huge opportunities in CREG and AVEO out of pure laziness. That aside, Thursday was a good day. I started out with a solid win on SGNL from $2.95 to $3.09 and $3.07 straight out of my plan and executed exactly as I planned it, so that was awesome. Also I had noticed the night before that CPRX had gotten orphan drug designation in after hours but hadn't released a PR about it yet, so I assumed sometime that morning they would release it and they did so around 10:30am. Since I was prepared and had it on alert I was able to snag it at $3.88 and sold quickly around 4 bucks. The push didn't really hold that day but it did hold up the following day and I still ended up with a decent scalp on it. The only weird trade I had this day was EPRS...I had it on my list for a short and for some reason decided to long it, lol. I couldn't tell you why other than maybe I was bored, so this goes back to my "no quick buck trades" rule from earlier. Additionally I was proud of myself on ZIOP because I attempted to short it at $13.86 (against my plan which was to short it $14+) but I corrected it quickly and took off the trade at $13.85. Soon after it reversed back through $14 and set up the way I wanted it to. I didn't take it but I was happy that I prevented the loss by correcting and sticking with my original plan even after I made the mistake of getting in. The next step is obviously to not even get in, lol. So anyway, overall, flat trade on ZIOP, small win on EPRS and nice wins on SGNL and CPRX so good day in the end. I also started my RGDO swing at $1.32 as I'd been planning for the last couple days. Only thing I'll say about that is I could have waited for it to pull back but I've seen this setup work so many times I was willing to add the extra risk in order to not miss the trade. It paid off, as you'll see in the recap below:
3/6/15 : Friday was good but I did make one mistake and I paid for it. I planned to short EPRS (in my "non-aggressive" watchlist) over $12 but I let my emotions get the best of me and tried to short it at $11.25. It quickly reversed and squeezed me out so that was a pretty stupid loss. The takeaway is pretty simple: "Stick with your plan, dumbass." lol - I have to learn this lesson over and over again and each time this happens I get a little better at not doing what I did with EPRS, so it's just a cost of doing business for me though I still take it very seriously and punish myself for it! Other than that I had a pretty straightforward day. I traded JRJC exactly per my plan, buying at $6.34 and selling $6.49, $6.60 and $6.38. This was my biggest trade of the day. I sort of wish I hadn't been so greedy on the last piece, but then again if I had sold it at $6.70 and the thing ran to $7+ like I expected I'd be saying I wish I hadn't been such a pussy, lol, so 6 of one half a dozen of the other. You can never be perfect in this game. I took the meat of the move and I think it will give another setup to play so that's good. I also had a pretty nice scalp in XIV (inverse volatility) buying at $32.41 and adding more at $32.39 after the continued pull to $32.29 and bounce. This is basically the inverse of a parabolic short, but I seem to be better at it on the long side. These are always just quick scalps at first since I was essentially playing the front side of the move, and I will usually use the small scalps to build a profit cushion which I can then risk on the real reversal. In the case of XIV it was just a SPY bloodbath so it never reversed and I just kept the profit cushion, so that worked out nicely and stress free! Finally, my beast of the day, RGDO took off and I sold at $1.41 and $1.57 and am still holding half of the swing in my Robinhood account. I plan to sell the rest at $1.75-$2.00 if I can get it. So far it's been a nice 20% gainer. One thing I did miss on Friday was ENOC. It actually worked out perfectly per my plan but it happened so fast in the morning I simply didn't feel comfortable taking it, and I liked JRJC better. I'm bad at managing multiple positions in the very early morning unless I already had them from the day before, so I try to keep it to only 1 position for the first few minutes. I was happy with my choice to do this because without doing so I probably would have missed JRJC and been stuck in ENOC all day long, even though it eventually worked amazingly, which is just stressful and annoying especially on a Friday.
So all in all like I said green on all 5 days, albeit VERY small green on Tuesday and I have a few things I can work on:
- Continue to stick to my plans with conviction...pull back a bit if plans change but don't be too conservative just cause I have to change the plan a little bit, as long as risk is still well managed.
- Keep exit orders on spready stocks a little looser so I don't end up missing the sell/cover by 1-2 pennies and giving back a ton of profit like I did on AMWD
- Wait to short front side parabolics until they push through a round number, not UNDER a round number
- No front-side parabolics, period on first day momentum like OREX. Wait til the back side
- Keep sizing on front-side parabolics small for now as they are "experimental" trades
- No "quick buck" trades (EPRS, TSEM) and stick with gut on trades that were not in my plan from the night before (PHMD)
- Continue to avoid blatant disregard for planning (e.g. EPRS short at $11.25 when plan was to short $12+). A bit of adjustment may be required but not too much
- WAKE UP ON TIME, DON'T BE A LAZY SHIT (AVEO, CREG)
- Continue to keep morning positions to only 1-2 max, usually only 1 unless I am VERY confident in both trades.
Alright that's enough babbling. Good week overall. Now time to make a watchlist for tomorrow and get my head in the game and ready to pay myself!
Chris
Submitted March 08, 2015 at 10:55PM by greenbartrading http://ift.tt/1wSAdO0
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