Tuesday, January 3, 2017

The post-Brexit issue weakens the United Kingdom in a lasting way

“Brexit means Brexit, and we’re going to make a success of it”. Such was Theresa May’s position on the day she was appointed Prime Minister. «There will be [...] no second referendum,» she added. «There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to re-join it through the back door, and no second referendum.

The country voted to leave the European Union, and it is the duty of the Government and of Parliament to make sure we do just that.» We now know a little more: the Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered in the first quarter of 2017. According to estimates, the impact on the GDP would be significantly negative. The UK could “lose” between 2.5% and 9.5% of its GDP. Trade volume and costs would be affected, specifically in financial services, chemicals, and automobiles, all sectors that are highly integrated in the EU. The risk for the UK resides in its future capacity to trade freely on the single market, to acquire the desired independence without the EU’s constraints. It seems unlikely, and in any case that is what is at stake in the negotiations that will begin no later than the second quarter of 2017... and that could last two years.



Submitted January 03, 2017 at 06:53AM by globodyx http://ift.tt/2hN05ZK

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