Thursday, March 23, 2017

Predicting Stocks by Aggregating Redditors' Predictions

I always wondered how accurately you can predict something by just having a bunch of people give their individual predictions, and then averaging it out. Now, I want to test this out.

Basically the way this would work is I would send out a daily google form that will have lets say 30 questions. Each question relates to a specific stock. So for example, question 1 would be: Do you think AAPL will go up or down tomorrow? And you would have two multiple choice options: Up, or Down. Then you would just do this for every stock on the form.

If we have enough people, we can average that out, and see how good we are at predicting stocks. Just to make it a little bit more fun, I can make a separate analysis of having a robot randomly pick UP or DOWN for each of the 30 or so stocks every day, and see if our predictions are better than random predictions.

But before we can do this, we need to know 2 things:

How many stocks do you think we should track every day, and which stocks should we track?

To answer this I've made this google form, and once I have enough responses I'll make the daily prediction form and send it out. The form will ask you for your email address at the end. This is so I can make a mailing list, and automatically send you the daily prediction form.



Submitted March 23, 2017 at 02:53PM by PootPeet http://ift.tt/2nWdEW6

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