I have been out of all the good stuff (tech, discretionary, etc) for the last month and a half. I happened to sniff out the big drop and got out of all my growth stocks just in time.
Now I am back in nearly 100%, and I wanted to see what people thought about that part.
My reason for dumping was weakness in the sectors (plateauing, underperforming on good days), along with some bad trade talk on both sides and actual tariffs finally ruining the start of earnings season. The last straw was the Powell interview, which got me finally 100% out after a lot of previous downsizing.
Now I am back in. It sounds like there is actual two-way negotiating on the China front, the end of year tariffs are said to be on hold, the Fed is starting to back off on the tough talk, and a lot of bad news is priced into a lot of fantastic stocks. Earnings season wasn't as nightmarish as it could have been in terms of actual numbers, and now the bar is set low enough to maybe get a few beats.
I am really hoping to catch a happy news cycle by the end of November / December, and then perhaps sell out again if we don't get a deal done by the end of the year. If anything feels phony about any rally, I might dump them also. But I feel like the "risk" is to the upside at this point.
What say you?
Submitted November 18, 2018 at 09:32PM by mnttlrg https://ift.tt/2A4O5Jv
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