Stock Watch

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Goldman’s odd reason to bet against housing stocks

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Submitted May 14, 2015 at 07:40AM by KSUWildcats http://ift.tt/1HfCCUe

It’s not too late to jump on the Apple bandwagon

http://ift.tt/1HfCCU3

Submitted May 14, 2015 at 08:55AM by GaryBarton http://ift.tt/1e3dSVw

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Stocks I'm watching tomorrow, 5/14/15

Hello ladies and gents!

Today was a bit of a frustrating day for me as I finished mostly FLAT even though all my trades from my plan did EXACTLY what I expected them to. This is an indication that I just messed up my execution of the plan. I traded FMSA long at $8.92 into the morning washout just as I planned and sold half of it at $9.12, but then I made the mistake of adding back what I sold a bit too soon and raised my average too much to be comfortable with it. I ended up stopping out for a small loss after I re-added which really messed up my head because I was up nicely on it and just screwed it up w/ bad management. Then I completely disregarded GLUU for some reason, even though it did EXACTLY what I expected which was bounce to $6.60 and then flush to $6.30s. I just didn’t take it…I think because I was annoyed about FMSA! Finally I longed CSLT like I planned but because it didn’t pull back in the morning I was watching the flag breakout around $8.35 and just missed the entry…I got an $8.40 fill and was holding it for 30-45 minutes but kept feeling like a sucker since I wanted to buy this at $8.10 and I just felt it was too high. So ultimately I ended up selling it at $8.42 and then it ran to $9.30s! So, ultimately I think my head just wasn’t in the game today. My plan was perfect and I just executed it poorly. Sometimes this happens when I start off with a trade that doesn’t go exactly the way I expected which is what happened on FMSA, so this is something I’m going to try to work on (coming back after a lame morning). In the mean time here is my plan for tomorrow:

ATEN (long):

This was really trying to break $5.58 today (daily level) so I’ll be watching closely in the morning to see if I can catch a morning flush down to $5.40 and go for the $5.50+ breakout. If I have to take this at $5.50+ then I will keep the stop tight under $5.50 like $5.45 or so, since if it breaks above today’s high it should just go immediately.

NTLS (long):

Very strong stock today on earnings that was driving all the way into the close. I will be watching for hopefully a weak open and red to green move through $8.20, ideally apull to under $8.00 for entry, but if it gaps up I will just wait to see if it develops a trend. This is a somewhat dynamic play so we will have to see how it opens to decide what to do but it definitely looks like it could continue higher tomorrow.

GIGA (long):

Mid-day GIGA released news of a $3m order for one of their products. The stock is a very low float name and has made huge runs in the past so if we see a weak open and red to green off $2.50 or so, this can easily break $3 and go to $3.50, $4.00, who knows. I’ll be watching for any sign of strength in the morning to get long.

Here are a few other ideas that might provide some opportunities:

CCIH (long) – Triggered alert today at $14.50. Still holding its flag so watching for it to break out

GMAN (short) – Still watching $7.20 level for short. If it breaks and holds over $7.50 I will just set an alert at $7.25 and take it off the list but until then I’m keeping it there every day

AAWW (short) – Still somewhat parabolic though it is starting to hold up and flag now. If it doesn’t crack in the next day or two I will take it off the list

TCPI (long) – Stalking closely for $4.00 breakout

ESI, WIN, ATRA (long) – All pretty stretched to the downside and looking ready for bounces soon

NHTC (short) – Watching for push toward $33-35 for parabolic short

SARA (long) – Sleeper!! 😉 Penny stock on watch for Robinhood account … over $0.25. Don’t trade this unless you know what you’re doing…it’s thin as shit and pretty risky, but if you have the right mentality it can give you a quick 40-50% gain

Hope everyone had a nice day!

Chris

Submitted May 13, 2015 at 09:48PM by ghostofgbt http://ift.tt/1Iz3Ckw

I'm considering starting a trading blog based on the idea of testing Entry signals for statistical significance. Is this something you would be interested in reading?

The idea behind the blog would be to use a simple stats test (binomial test), on various entry strategy to see if the entries are actually better then random.

Generally, I'd test for...

Higher then at entry
Much higher then at entry
Much lower then at entry

The much higher and much lower breakpoints would be based on a % of the average true range.

The time frames after entry tested would be for short, medium, and long term, those being relative to the strategy itself. (EG: For an opening range breakout, I'd test 5 minutes after breakout, an hour after breakout, and end of day)

Now I don't subscribe to the idea that a chart is a chart is a chart, and that the same patterns that work on a daily chart work on a 5 minute chart. I also don't subscribe to the idea that the same patterns that work on one trading instrument work on all instruments.

Consequently, for each signal I'm testing, I would test it under a range of conditions, with a couple different symbols for the sake of thoroughness.

Currently, my candidates would be...

Index ETFS SPY QQQ IWM

Non-equity ETF TLT GLD USO

High Beta NYSE TEX MTW MTG YOKU SUNE

High Beta Nasdaq KERX JASO PEIX ODP ACAD

Low Beta NYSE SO ED DUK CMS DPS

Low Beta Nasdaq NBIX ARCP AMAG AGNC MEMP

While this is already a big list of things to be running tests on, it so far likely underweights small caps, which could conceivably behave differently. It is biased towards high volume instruments, which would likely move differently as well.

Testing setups across multiple categories ensures that if a pattern works for only certain types of stocks, it can still be found.

Testing setups across multiple stocks inside the categories is similar to a mini-replication.

Note though that there is still a bit of a bias if we check over the same timeframe, and it turns out the data is correlated, and so anything that looks particularly promising would be replicated later using data from a different time period.

Here are some quick ideas to get a scope of the kind of things I might test. Most of these are daytrading ideas, although I could test longer term position/swing trading ideas if people express interest.

Opening Range breakout, 20 minute opening range.
Opening Range breakout, 20 minute opening range, breakout between 10:00 and 11:00.
Opening Range breakout, 20 minute opening range, breakout between 11:00 and 2:30.
Bounce off even dollar levels among stocks between $100-$200, using VWAP to filter for trend direction. Test $30-$80 stocks with half dollar levels, test $250+ stocks with levels ending in 5 or 0. ($255, $260, $265 ...)
Breakout of last 5 days high
Breakout of last 5 days high when high wasn't set yesterday. (signifying a need for it to 'cool off')
Breakout of last 5 days high when high WAS set yesterday. (Does momentum from yesterday continue?)
Breakout of last 5 days high when high was set yesterday, and close was above the high.
last 5 days high when... Breakout via Gap
when... Breakout happens between 9:30 and 10:00
when... Breakout between 10:00 and 11:00
when... Breakout between 11:00 and 2:30
when... Breakout between 2:30 and 4:00
Entry in direction of breakout if volume in first 5 minutes of breakout is greater then 5% of Average Daily Volume.
idea 14 but filtered by time
idea 14 but filtered by index movement. (take trade only if ES Futures are within 4 ticks of their high of day)

Etc. What I would likely try to do is cover a specific theme every week. So perhaps 5 day high/low breakouts is one week. Opening Range breakouts is another week. Gaps might be a third week, and fade strategies based on ATR or Crabel-style stretch values could be a 4th week.

During the week, I'd cover a number of variations on the idea, and with each variation I'd run the tests on the lists of candidates above. This might tell us things like, 'opening range breakouts on high volume are generally much higher one hour later on high beta NYSE stocks (p<0.01), high beta NASDAQ stocks (p<0.05) but not low beta stocks or major index etfs'.

Is this kind of blog you would be interested in reading? Is there anything specifically you would want to see covered?

Commodities?
Bonds?
Small caps?
Low volume stocks (<500,000 average daily volume)?
Low price stocks (trading at <$5.00)?
News plays (I'd probably filter for gap>10%)?

tldr: If I start a trading blog focused purely on entry signals, and testing those entry signals for statistical significance, would you read it?

Submitted May 13, 2015 at 06:21PM by Khaos1125 http://ift.tt/1cy0IPc