Retail Rules the day...

FOR TRADING August 23rd Retail Rules the Day

The market started on the downside after overnight futures were weak, but nowhere near the lows on the Trump news. Before I went to sleep around midnight the S&P e-minis were down about 17 but by the open it was closer to -5. Almost from the start the DJIA was the weak sister, and as has been the case recently the bigger the index the better it did. The low on DJIA was -100 and it closed -88.69 (.34%), S&P 500 -1.14 (.04%), NASDAQ +29.93 (.38%) DJ Transports -114.12 (1%), and the Russell +4.50 (.26%). Internals on the DJIA were 22 down and 8 up with the bulk of the loss today centered in BA -27 DOW pts., UTX -19, TRV -16, and MMM -10. The overall internals on NYSE were essentially even with volume 1:1, A/D 14:13, but new highs were 4:1. NASDAW was much stronger with volume 2:1, A/D 3:2, and new highs 7:1.

SECTORS:

Other names in the news, the big news were more beats by retailers with TGT the star today finishing +2.67 (3.2%) after being lifted as much as $5.50, URBN also beat but got none of the love and with 4 upgrades based on the beats traded up to $52.50 finished $45.48 -2.26 (4.73%), SMRT (Stein Mart) reported a smaller loss and solid full year projections but traded from $3.19 down to $2.58 -.46 (16%), and last in the retail list was WSM, up from $58 this week is trading $68.45 +5.83 (9.3%). Also in the news was EXAS, maker of the non-invasive Cologuard test that it is in an agreement to market the product with Pfizer. It closed +15.27 (30.5%). This was a $6 stock 2 years ago.

BIO/PHARMA, today they were MOSTLY HIGHER with CELG -.56, BIIB +1.70, REGN +1.61, ISRG +6.45, ABBV +.06, MYL -.18, TEVA -.67, PRGO +.34, GILD +.50, VRTX +.86, BHC +.94, INCY -.10, ICPT +1.37, INNT -.01, and IBB +1.12 (.96%).

RETAIL was MIXED as earnings for TGT and WSM drove the group, but some of the names took a rest. M -.51, JWN +.75, KSS -1.18, DDS +.33, SHLD -.03, JCP +.06, WMT -.28, HD -1.33, TJX -.70, TGT +2.69, DKS -.20, and the brands URBN -2.36, ANF -.08, RL -1.93, UAA -.20, LULU +1.85, NKE -.27, KORS -1.38, GPS +.08, and XRT +.03 (.06%).

FAANG, the group was MIXED TO HIGHER today with GOOGL +4.34, AMZN +21.72, AAPL +.05, FB +.83, NVDA +9.42(Andrew Left of Citron is calling for 20% decline), TSLA -.23, NFLX + 6.48, BIDU -.08, BABA +.60, IBM -1.05, BOX +.30(we bought the 9/27 calls @ $1.15 today and they closed $1.12 +.09) and XLK +.15 (.21%).

FINANCIALS, banks were LOWER with GS +.69, JPM -.23, BAC -.05, AIG -.39, C -.11, PNC -.71, WFC +.10, and XLF -.10 (.35%).

OIL, $67.86 +2.02 Oil was rocked by supply and drawdown numbers last week but after probing the lows for the past few days managed to bounce and spend some time defining the trading range. Last night I said that I want to see some horizontal trading before making a commitment to the long side again, but today’s action was dramatic. I will still have to stand aside since to get long offers no reasonable stop if I’m wrong, and I don’t want to get short a strong market. There is still meaningful supply between here and $70.40.

There is also a solid downtrend to contend with. I’m still “sit and watch.”

The stocks were HIGHER with CVX +.86, APC +1.01, BP +.61, COP +1.11, APA +.83, PSX +.51, MCP +1.20, MRO +.74, RIG +.33, OAS +.52, HES +1.79, NE +.25, OXY +.44, XOM +1.13 and XLE +.96 (1.31%).

METALS, $1,203.30 +3.30 the gold failed to hold the round number of $1,200 and has traded as low as $1,167 before its current 4-day rally. This prior support now becomes resistance and until we can rally AND CLOSE over $1,225 – 1,240. Copper collapsed to contract lows of $2.55 and it has broken all support going back to May 2017 at $2.50, and it too has tried for a couple of days to rally back into the break-down. We’ll need better economic numbers to get it started back to the upside.

BITCOIN closed $6,287 +230. After trading down to below test support at 6,800 we collapsed again hitting $6,110 before a minor rally to trade 6,615. Tuesday’s low of $5855 is just $100 above contract lows of $5,755 could easily be breached and the overhead supply is still from 6,900 to 7,300. Today we rallied as high as 6,880 and couldn’t hold and finished closer to the lows of the day. I believe we will test at least $6,000 shortly.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM

Submitted August 22, 2018 at 08:51PM by Dashover https://ift.tt/2Px32dX