I've been trading for a few months and I'm about even. I did some hardcore analysis tonight and thought maybe someone would benefit from what I'm finding. I've been buying and holding on to stocks just long enough to not get tagged as a 'pattern day trader' and from what I'm seeing, it's a miracle I am even at this point. I have been buying and selling based on essentially p/e ratio, Williams %R, and Relative Strength Index using a daily dump of market data I get from profitspi.com.
Tonight I started comparing today's winners and losers against yesterdays indicators going back several weeks and found out at least for the length of time I am holding stocks, the indicators I am using, evaluated by themselves, just as numbers are completely useless. I am not seeing any correlation with a good number on an indicator today and a winner or loser tomorrow. Many of them are essentially perfectly correlated with price, meaning if I am seeing a positive sign in an indicator like WMR less than -70 or RSI less than 30, it is immediately factored into price and it's too late to profit off of it.
What I did find is this, if I want to find predictive indicators, I need to be looking at 30 day charts for trends and specifically when a handful of values intersect with base lines. namely, 3 day RSI intersecting with 14 day on an upward trajectory, same with WMR, same with 9 day simple moving average and 22 day SMA, Aroon Up surpassing Aroon Down and MACD 12 day passing 26 day or EMA signals, ADX when +DI converges upward past -DI. One indicator I never heard of does seem to spike sometimes before price does and thats a 10 day 'Fisher Transform'
I'm also learning much of the stock advice 'news' is misleading or flat out wrong. If it's good advice, by the time you read it, it's already too late to profit off of it. Follow the pros and the insiders, not the herd. For example, facebook looks like a great buy until you look at all of the SEC insider trade filings and see that just about all of the facebook executives are dumping shares. https://fintel.io/n/us/fb I think unless you are willing to really dig and do your own research you are better off just parking your money in a fund and leaving it there.
Just my two cents. Good luck and happy trading. I'd love to hear other thoughts on this.
Submitted September 26, 2018 at 01:23AM by jimmc414 https://ift.tt/2OPc3yk
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