What's up r/StockMarket and happy Sunday to all! :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 12th, 2018.
Dow drops 200 points on worries about slowing global economic growth - (Source)
Stocks fell on Friday as further losses in oil prices sparked fears of a global economic slowdown, but the major indexes still managed solid weekly gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 201.92 points to 25,989.30 as losses in Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs offset gains from Disney. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9 percent to 2,781.01, led lower by consumer discretionary shares and tech. The Nasdaq Compositelagged, dropping 1.7 percent to 7,406.90 as shares of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet all traded lower.
The indexes recovered most of their losses late in the day. At its session lows, the Dow was down 308.31 points.
West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.8 percent to $60.19 a barrel, after briefly breaking below $60 for the first time since March. They also fell further into bear-market territory, trading more than 20 percent below their 52-week high.
Disappointing data out of China also dampened sentiment on Wall Street. The country's top auto industry association said sales in China fell 11.7 percent last month, marking the fourth straight monthly decline. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.4 percent overnight. Caterpillar shares dropped 3.4 percent in the U.S. while General Motors' stock fell 2.4 percent.
"The overall trend is definitely weakening," said Benjamin Lau, chief investment officer of Apriem Advisors. "You're seeing it in some of the earnings."
"We're seeing more anecdotal evidence that the global economy is weakening from the bottom end to the top end," Lau said.
The weak Chinese economic data come as the U.S. and China engage in a trade spat that has been going on for most of the year. The two countries have slapped tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other's goods as the U.S. seeks a better trade deal with China.
Comments from White House trade advisor Peter Navarro soured optimism about a possible deal between the two countries. "If there is a deal — if and when there is a deal, it will be on President Donald J. Trump's terms. Not Wall Street's terms," he said. Navarro's comments come ahead of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming G-20 summit.
These sharp losses have rekindled worries about a possible slowdown in the global economy, which come as the Federal Reserve looks to further tighten monetary policy. The Fed on Thursday decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as was expected, but comments by the U.S. central bank suggested it was on course to continue hiking rates.
Although a statement released by the institution noted a moderation in business investment, it said the bank still expects "further gradual increases" in the prime lending rate. Traders had been on edge last month due to concerns over the Fed's rate hiking path.
But equities still recorded strong gains for the week, following a big post-midterm elections rally. The S&P 500 and Dow gained 2.8 percent and 2.1 percent for the week, respectively. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, rose 0.7 percent. This week's gains were the biggest for the Dow since the week of March 9, when it rose 3.25 percent.
The U.S. midterm elections ended with the Democrats taking control of the House and the GOP maintaining a majority in the Senate. This result was widely expected by pollsters and election experts. Under this government make-up, meaning a split Congress and a Republican president, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12 percent gain since 1928, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"We've got this 'yes, but' scenario, meaning things are good right now but a lot can still happen," said Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management. "There's still some turmoil and some volatility keeping investors on the sidelines."
On the earnings front, Yelp shares plunged more than 26 percent after releasing its latest quarterly results. Dow-member Disney, meanwhile, rose 1.7 percent on the back of better-than-expected results.
(Click Here to read the full article!)
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P HEAT MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR CHART LINK #3!)
Typical November Trading: Strength Early & Late
As of the market’s close yesterday, DJIA was up 2.07% thus far in November. S&P 500 was higher by 1.61% and NASDAQ was higher by 0.96%. Small-caps, measured by the Russell 2000 were performing the best, up 2.96% over the first four trading days in November. Current gains are consistent with the historical trend of early November strength. However, historically early strength has faded after the fourth trading day. Election results coming in line with expectations has extended strength this year. Mid-month, from around the fifth trading day until the fourteenth trading day, has been choppy. From there until the penultimate trading day of November the market has historically booked solid gains. Recently the last trading day has been prone to more weakness than strength.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Beyond the Midterm Elections…A Solid Rally Regardless
Later today the first of the day’s election results will begin to trickle in and if history is any guide, the results will likely have a minor impact on the market. This is the “Sweet Spot” of the four-year cycle for the market. In the following chart the 30 trading days before and 60 days trading days after the last 17 midterm year elections appear (NASDAQ since 1974). Prior to 1969 the market was closed on Election Day so the close on the day before was used. By 60 trading days after the election (approximately three months), DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were all higher on average from 6.8% to nearly 10%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Digging deeper into the data, the following table shows S&P 500 performance 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the midterm elections since 1950. 1- and 3-months after the election S&P 500 was higher 82.4% and 94.1% of the time respectively. By 6-months and 1-year after, S&P 500 was always higher, although gains did slow after 6-months. The years the President’s party lost control of the House of Representatives are shaded in grey.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
5 Midterm Charts to Know
Chart 1 – Most equity gains tend to happen late in the year during a midterm year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Chart 2 – Since 1946, the S&P 500 Index has been higher 12 months after every single midterm election. That’s 18 for 18.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Chart 3 – The S&P 500’s closing low for the month of October was October 29. Since 1950 in mid-term election years, the S&P 500 gained more than 10% on average from the October low close until the end of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Chart 4 – Under a Republican president, the best scenario for stocks has been a split Congress. This is the most likely scenario after today’s elections, according to most Washington insiders.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Chart 5 – The fourth quarter of a midterm year historically have been the best quarter of the four-year presidential cycle. Not to be outdone, the next two quarters have been quite strong as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P 500 Cumulative A/D Line Tracking Price
We monitor all sorts of different breadth indicators in order to get a feel for how market internals compare to moves in the major market averages, and one of the most widely followed of these indicators is the S&P 500’s cumulative A/D line. The cumulative A/D line is simply a running total of the daily net number of stocks in the S&P 500 rising or falling.
The chart below shows the cumulative A/D line for the S&P 500 (red line) and the index’s price over the last 12 months. At first glance, it looks like the cumulative A/D line has generally been tracking the price of the index during this period, but if you look closely, there are some key periods that are telling. Looking back at the late January through early Spring period, you can see that while equities sold off sharply in the initial leg lower, breadth held up relatively well. In fact, while the first bounce in February stalled out well short of the prior highs, the cumulative A/D line came close to making a new high. More importantly, though, when the S&P 500 tested the February lows, the cumulative A/D line didn’t come close to making a new low, and then the rally that followed, it actually made a new high well before the market. This was a key positive divergence at the time and suggested that the S&P 500 would eventually retake its prior highs.
In the current period leading up to the S&P 500’s peak right up until now, we haven’t seen much in the way of divergences in either direction. Both the price and cumulative A/D line of the S&P 500 made new highs on the same day in September, sold off hard, and then in the ensuing rally retraced right around 60% of the high to low decline. Unfortunately, at this point breadth isn’t saying much good or bad. Looking forward, though, the key things to watch will be how breadth reacts if Friday’s decline is the beginning of a new leg lower, or what happens if the S&P 500 rebounds and makes a run for new highs.
If you are a bull, you’ll want to see breadth remain above the recent low on any retest of the lows in price or a new high in breadth ahead of a new high in price. Bears, on the other hand, will want to see breadth accelerate to the downside on any weakness and lag prices on any upside.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for November 12th, 2018
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.11.18 - Gridlock
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
- $NVDA
- $CGC
- $HD
- $TLRY
- $CRON
- $WMT
- $AMAT
- $CSCO
- $GOOS
- $JCP
- $YY
- $M
- $MNGA
- $APRN
- $ATHM
- $ACM
- $TTNP
- $DFRG
- $AAP
- $WIX
- $NAT
- $NTAP
- $TSN
- $VIAB
- $NTES
- $JWN
- $ARMK
- $PETQ
- $HP
- $NVCM
- $SWCH
- $SONO
- $GLNG
- $KMDA
- $VERI
- $URGN
- $VIPS
- $FOCS
- $BZH
- $IZEA
- $GWGH
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AM PRE-MARKET EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 11.12.18 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 11.12.18 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 11.13.18 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 11.13.18 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 11.14.18 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 11.14.18 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 11.15.18 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 11.15.18 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 11.16.18 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 11.16.18 After Market Close:
NONE.
NVIDIA Corp. $205.67
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.73 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.80 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.08% with revenue increasing by 22.91%. Short interest has increased by 17.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 18.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% below its 200 day moving average of $245.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 8, 2018 there was some notable buying of 8,104 contracts of the $250.00 call expiring on Friday, December 21, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Canopy Growth Corporation $39.14
Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $25.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.09) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 9.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.0% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 7, 2018 there was some notable buying of 5,098 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 20.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Depot, Inc. $185.99
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 13, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $26.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 23.37% with revenue increasing by 4.89%. Short interest has increased by 30.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.0% below its 200 day moving average of $189.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 1, 2018 there was some notable buying of 2,982 contracts of the $190.00 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Tilray, Inc. $108.99
Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, November 13, 2018. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $10.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted higher by 76.9% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 7, 2018 there was some notable buying of 3,665 contracts of the $100.00 put expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 19.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 20.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cronos Group Inc. $8.55
Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 13, 2018. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $2.71 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 84.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.4% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 6, 2018 there was some notable buying of 3,026 contracts of the $9.00 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 19.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Walmart Inc. $105.56
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.02 per share on revenue of $124.83 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2.00% with revenue increasing by 1.34%. Short interest has decreased by 19.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.3% above its 200 day moving average of $90.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 30, 2018 there was some notable buying of 16,753 contracts of the $105.00 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Applied Materials, Inc. $34.28
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.96 per share on revenue of $4.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.92 to $1.00 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 3.23% with revenue increasing by 0.78%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 23.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.49. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, October 31, 2018 there was some notable buying of 10,181 contracts of the $36.00 call and 10,006 contracts of the $36.00 put expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Cisco Systems, Inc. $47.11
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.72 per share on revenue of $12.87 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.70 to $0.72 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 6.05%. Short interest has decreased by 10.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.5% above its 200 day moving average of $44.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 9, 2018 there was some notable buying of 6,278 contracts of the $47.50 put expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. $59.99
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $149.59 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 17.39% with revenue increasing by 8.80%. Short interest has increased by 45.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.1% above its 200 day moving average of $52.58. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 9, 2018 there was some notable buying of 515 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 16.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
J.C. Penney Company Inc $1.34
J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.57 per share on revenue of $2.83 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.59) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 72.73% with revenue increasing by 0.82%. Short interest has increased by 0.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 31.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.6% below its 200 day moving average of $2.95. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, October 29, 2018 there was some notable buying of 4,575 contracts of the $1.50 call expiring on Friday, November 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 28.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.1% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead? Have a great week to everyone in here on this new week ahead!
Have a fantastic trading week r/StockMarket! :)
Submitted November 11, 2018 at 11:17AM by bigbear0083 https://ift.tt/2ODr7hQ
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