The 30 year yield minus the 10 year yield is already flashing a recession warning sign

Since the late 1970s, the difference between the 30 year and the 10 year as been troughing at higher levels. This is interesting because most consider an inverted curve as an early warning sign of a recession. However, the increasing trend might put this cycle’s trough at a positive differential. The 126 basis points of flattening this cycle is 5 basis points more than the average in the past 3 cycles. The amount of flattening would be way above average if it inverts.

Can A Positive Yield Curve Signal A Recession?

Yield curve

Submitted November 15, 2018 at 12:37AM by AlexPitti https://ift.tt/2K3Vb5z