Post Election Effects on the Stock Market

Using historical data dating back to 1954 these are the results of analyzing how the elections affect the stock market:

• On average, for the 16 time periods measured, the market rises +5% from Election Day to the end of the year (<2 months) and rises +11% over the next 12 months after Election Day.
• On average, for the 7 out of 16 times when one or both chambers of Congress (House or Senate) has flipped from one party to another, the market rises +2% from Election Day to the end of the year (<2 months) and rises +11% over the next 12 months after Election Day.
• On average, for the 4 out of 16 times when the House of Representatives has flipped from one party to another, the market rises +3% from Election Day to the end of the year (<2 months) and rises +15% over the next 12 months after Election Day.
• On average, for the 6 out of 16 times when the Senate has flipped from one party to another, with the market rises +2% from Election Day to the end of the year (<2 months) and rises +13% over the next 12 months after Election Day.
• Since 1954, there has been four instances when the incumbent Presidential party lost their "triple threat" during the midterm elections. The "triple threat" is the Presidency and control of both chambers of Congress. This happened during Obama 2010, Bush 2006, Clinton 1994, Eisenhower 1954. On average, after the incumbent Presidential party loses their "triple threat", the market rises +3% from Election Day to the end of the year (<2 months) and rises +15% over the next  over the next 12 months after Election Day.

Source: https://blog.milton.ai/how-do-midterms/

Submitted November 14, 2018 at 04:35PM by theNonlinearity https://ift.tt/2QK2Jg3